Burnley 1-2 Wolves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wolves at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burnley vs Wolves encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 11 as Burnley welcome Wolves to Turf Moor. Kick-off is set for Friday 16 October 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Burnley have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Turf Moor, Burnley have gone 0W 7D 3L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Wolves — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wolves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wolves's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Wolves — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Burnley, 1 for Wolves and 3 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Burnley trading profile (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Wolves trading profile (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 66% versus Wolves 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 53% | Wolves 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.29 xG and Wolves 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.866 / defence 1.134 | Wolves attack 0.956 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.315. Data: 10 Burnley games / 9 Wolves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 34% | Draw 26% | Wolves 40%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Wolves 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wolves as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Burnley 70% | Wolves 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Wolves | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Friday 16 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 34% | Draw 26% | Wolves 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Burnley 1.29 / Wolves 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.866 / def 1.134 | Wolves attack 0.956 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: Wolves (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Wolves xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Wolves kick off?
Burnley vs Wolves kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 16 October 2026 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Wolves?
Burnley 1 - 2 Wolves.
Where is Burnley vs Wolves being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Wolves part of?
Burnley vs Wolves is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Wolves?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 34% chance of winning, Wolves a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Wolves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Wolves?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Burnley and Wolves will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Wolves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Wolves?
Record (6 meetings): Burnley 2W | Draws 3 | Wolves 1W.
What form are Burnley and Wolves in?
Burnley (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Wolves (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Burnley's attack at 0.87x the league average against Wolves's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wolves's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolves Win
34%
2.95
26%
3.86
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.71
1.43
Wolves xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
8%
12.25
11%
9.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.4 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.2 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Wolves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Burnley and Wolves expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Burnley and 1.43 for Wolves, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Wolves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Burnley come into this having played 47 games, going 5W 15D 27L for 0.64 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-D. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wolves sit at 0.72 PPG from 47 outings (7W 13D 27L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Wolves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Burnley on 0.64 PPG, Wolves on 0.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Burnley's home form reads 2W 11D 11L across 24 games on their own ground, a 0.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Wolves have taken 0.54 points per game from 24 outings (2W 7D 15L).
Goals in Recent Form
Burnley are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Wolves are on 0.91 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Burnley have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
Wolves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Wolves in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 5W 15D 27L in their last 47 games (0.64 PPG), while Wolves have gone 7W 13D 27L in their last 47 (0.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Wolves away?
Burnley's home record (0.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 0.71 PPG; Wolves away: 0.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Premier League, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 16 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Burnley's record when hosting Wolves specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Burnley
3
Draws
2
Wolves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Wolves?
From 7 meetings on record, Burnley have won 2, Wolves have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Wolves last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2026, when Burnley 1-2 Wolves.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Wolves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 54%, Wolves 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Burnley) and 46% (Wolves).
On the defensive side: Burnley have failed to score in 38% of games; Wolves in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Wolves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Wolves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Burnley's recent matches and 42% of Wolves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Wolves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Burnley's recent games and 46% of Wolves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Wolves tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Wolves in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wolves edge out Burnley 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolves beat Burnley 1-2 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 11, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.29 xG and Wolves 1.43 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.87 / defence 1.13 against Wolves attack 0.96 / defence 1.01, drawn from 10/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 34% | Draw 26% | Wolves 40%, with Wolves to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 53%, Wolves 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Wolves's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burnley 0.64 PPG, Wolves 0.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wolves win broke the near-deadlock. Wolves (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.