Burnley 0-0 Stoke City – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Burnley (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Burnley face Stoke City.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 25 as Burnley welcome Stoke City to Turf Moor. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 1 January 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Burnley — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burnley's form when playing at home: 5W 5D 0L across 10 games at Turf Moor this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Turf Moor.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stoke City stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Championship matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Stoke City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stoke City's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Burnley carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Burnley, 0 for Stoke City and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2024, ended 2–0 with Burnley winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Burnley in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Stoke City in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 50% versus Stoke City 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 45% | Stoke City 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.12 xG and Stoke City 0.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.787 / defence 0.723 | Stoke City attack 0.767 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.017. Burnley's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Burnley's defence rating of 0.723 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 24 Burnley games / 70 Stoke City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 48% | Draw 34% | Stoke City 18%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 2.08 | Draw 2.94 | Stoke City 5.56. Burnley hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.69. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.69 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Stoke City's lower xG of 0.56 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Burnley as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burnley offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.69 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 24% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 30%. Form rates corroborate: Burnley 40% | Stoke City 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Stoke City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Jan 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 48% | Draw 34% | Stoke City 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 30% | xG Burnley 1.12 / Stoke City 0.56 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.787 / def 0.723 | Stoke City attack 0.767 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.017 • Poisson stance: Burnley (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
0.56
Stoke City xG
30%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Stoke City kick off?
Burnley vs Stoke City kicked off at 15:00 on Wednesday 1 January 2025 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Stoke City?
Burnley 0 - 0 Stoke City.
Where is Burnley vs Stoke City being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Stoke City part of?
Burnley vs Stoke City is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Stoke City?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 48% chance of winning, Stoke City a 18% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Stoke City?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Burnley and Stoke City will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Stoke City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Stoke City?
Record (3 meetings): Burnley 2W | Draws 1 | Stoke City 0W.
What form are Burnley and Stoke City in?
Burnley (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Stoke City (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Burnley's attack at 0.79x the league average against Stoke City's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stoke City's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 0.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (19.2%), 1-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
48%
2.07
34%
2.93
18%
5.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
20.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
18.5%
Draw
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Burnley xG
Total xG
1.69
0.56
Stoke City xG
2.07
48%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
5.70
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.33
70%
BTTS No
1.43
Clean Sheet
57%
1.76
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
27%
3.64
6%
17.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.5 | 10.4 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.8 | 11.7 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 6.6 | 1.9 | 0.4 | – | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Stoke City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.0%.
How many goals are Burnley and Stoke City expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Burnley and 0.56 for Stoke City, a combined total of 1.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Stoke City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Burnley come into this having played 62 games, going 18W 18D 26L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-D. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Stoke City sit at 1.19 PPG from 62 outings (19W 17D 26L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Stoke City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Burnley on 1.16 PPG, Stoke City on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Burnley's home form reads 8W 9D 13L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Stoke City have taken 1.10 points per game from 30 outings (9W 6D 15L).
Goals in Recent Form
Burnley are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Stoke City are on 1.05 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
Stoke City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Stoke City in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 18W 18D 26L in their last 62 games (1.16 PPG), while Stoke City have gone 19W 17D 26L in their last 62 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Stoke City away?
Burnley's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.10 PPG; Stoke City away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Burnley or Stoke City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Stoke City in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Burnley's record when hosting Stoke City specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Burnley
2
Draws
0
Stoke City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Stoke City?
From 4 meetings on record, Burnley have won 2, Stoke City have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Stoke City last play each other?
They last met on 1 January 2025, when Burnley 0-0 Stoke City.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Stoke City?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Burnley see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Stoke City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 50%, Stoke City 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Burnley) and 40% (Stoke City).
On the defensive side: Burnley have failed to score in 33% of games; Stoke City in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Stoke City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Stoke City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Burnley's recent matches and 47% of Stoke City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Stoke City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Burnley's recent games and 40% of Stoke City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Stoke City tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Stoke City in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Burnley's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 25, as Burnley and Stoke City drew 0-0 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.12 xG and Stoke City 0.56 xG, a combined 1.69. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Burnley fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.79 / defence 0.72 against Stoke City attack 0.77 / defence 1.02, drawn from 24/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 48% | Draw 34% | Stoke City 18%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 51% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 45%, Stoke City 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stoke City's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burnley 1.16 PPG, Stoke City 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Stoke City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.