Burnley 2-0 Coventry – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burnley at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burnley vs Coventry fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Turf Moor plays host to Burnley versus Coventry in Championship, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Tuesday 26 November 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Burnley's overall Championship record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.20 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burnley at Turf Moor this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Turf Moor.
Coventry (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W L D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Coventry, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coventry's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Burnley's 1.70 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Coventry's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Burnley 2W, Coventry 0W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2023, ended 1–0 with Burnley winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Burnley half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Coventry half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 52% versus Coventry 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 48% | Coventry 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.02 xG and Coventry 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.808 / defence 0.785 | Coventry attack 1.071 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.062. Burnley's defence rating of 0.785 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 16 Burnley games / 62 Coventry games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 36% | Draw 34% | Coventry 29%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 2.78 | Draw 2.94 | Coventry 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Burnley as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burnley if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.91 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Burnley 50% | Coventry 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Coventry | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Nov 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 36% | Draw 34% | Coventry 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG Burnley 1.02 / Coventry 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.808 / def 0.785 | Coventry attack 1.071 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Burnley (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Coventry xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Coventry kick off?
Burnley vs Coventry kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 26 November 2024 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Coventry?
Burnley 2 - 0 Coventry.
Where is Burnley vs Coventry being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Coventry part of?
Burnley vs Coventry is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Coventry?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 36% chance of winning, Coventry a 29% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Coventry?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Burnley and Coventry will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Coventry have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Coventry?
Record (2 meetings): Burnley 2W | Draws 0 | Coventry 0W.
What form are Burnley and Coventry in?
Burnley (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.20 | L5 D-L-D-W-W. Coventry (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Burnley's attack rating (0.81) and Coventry's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Coventry's attack (1.07x) against Burnley's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 16/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
36%
2.76
34%
2.92
29%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Burnley xG
Total xG
1.91
0.89
Coventry xG
2.76
36%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
3.39
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
15%
6.74
11%
9.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 13.2 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Coventry?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Burnley and Coventry expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Burnley and 0.89 for Coventry, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Coventry?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 54 outings, Burnley have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 13W 15D 26L record — D-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Coventry's form line: 20W 13D 21L from 54 games, 1.35 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-D. The sample for Coventry is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Burnley against 1.35 for Coventry. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Burnley have posted 0.96 PPG from 26 outings (6W 7D 13L).
On the road, Coventry have gone 8W 7D 11L from 26 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Burnley are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Coventry are on 1.48 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coventry in 61%.
Last 54 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
Coventry
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Coventry in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 13W 15D 26L in their last 54 games (1.00 PPG), while Coventry have gone 20W 13D 21L in their last 54 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Coventry away?
Coventry's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 0.96 PPG; Coventry away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Burnley go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burnley have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Coventry — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Burnley
0
Draws
0
Coventry
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Coventry?
From 4 meetings on record, Burnley have won 4, Coventry have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Coventry last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Coventry 1-2 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Coventry?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Burnley see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Coventry are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 50%, Coventry 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Burnley) and 62% (Coventry). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Burnley have failed to score in 35% of games; Coventry in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Coventry away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Coventry?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Burnley's recent matches and 58% of Coventry's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Coventry usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Burnley's matches and 62% of Coventry's.
Do Burnley and Coventry tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Coventry in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Burnley cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Coventry.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley beat Coventry 2-0 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 17, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.02 xG and Coventry 0.89 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Burnley beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Coventry landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.81 / defence 0.79 against Coventry attack 1.07 / defence 0.94, drawn from 16/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 36% | Draw 34% | Coventry 29%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 48%, Coventry 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Coventry's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burnley 1.00 PPG, Coventry 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burnley win broke the near-deadlock. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line. Coventry (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.