Burnley vs Blackburn – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Blackburn at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burnley vs Blackburn encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Burnley host Blackburn at Turf Moor in Championship, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 November 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burnley stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Championship matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Turf Moor, Burnley have gone 0W 6D 4L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Championship games this season, Blackburn have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Blackburn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Blackburn away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Blackburn are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Burnley register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Blackburn in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Burnley hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for Blackburn, with 1 draws in between.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 4 Jan 2025, ended 1–0 with Burnley winning.
The historical record gives Burnley a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Burnley in-play tendencies (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Blackburn in-play tendencies (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Burnley 65% and Blackburn 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 55% | Blackburn 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.37 xG and Blackburn 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.852 / defence 1.200 | Blackburn attack 0.952 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.305. Data: 11 Burnley games / 57 Blackburn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 35% | Draw 25% | Blackburn 40%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | Blackburn 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Burnley dominate the H2H record, yet Blackburn are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Blackburn at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Blackburn offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Burnley 80% | Blackburn 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Blackburn | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 35% | Draw 25% | Blackburn 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Burnley 1.37 / Blackburn 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.852 / def 1.200 | Blackburn attack 0.952 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Blackburn (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Blackburn xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Blackburn kick off?
Burnley vs Blackburn is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 22 November 2026 at Turf Moor.
Where is Burnley vs Blackburn being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Blackburn part of?
Burnley vs Blackburn is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Blackburn?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 35% chance of winning, Blackburn a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Blackburn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Blackburn?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Burnley and Blackburn will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Blackburn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Blackburn?
Record (4 meetings): Burnley 3W | Draws 1 | Blackburn 0W.
What form are Burnley and Blackburn in?
Burnley (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Blackburn (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Burnley's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Blackburn's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, Blackburn's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Blackburn Win
35%
2.88
25%
4.01
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.86
1.49
Blackburn xG
2.88
35%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
8%
12.79
10%
9.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.7 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Blackburn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Burnley and Blackburn expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Burnley and 1.49 for Blackburn, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Blackburn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Burnley's recent record stands at 5W 15D 29L from 49 games, a 0.61 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Blackburn, meanwhile, have gone 15W 15D 19L across 49 games — 1.22 PPG, with W-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Blackburn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Blackburn by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Burnley heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Burnley have managed 2W 11D 12L from 25 games — 0.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Blackburn's away record stands at 8W 7D 10L across 25 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Blackburn come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Burnley are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; Blackburn are on 1.06 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Burnley have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
Blackburn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Blackburn in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 5W 15D 29L in their last 49 games (0.61 PPG), while Blackburn have gone 15W 15D 19L in their last 49 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Blackburn away?
Blackburn's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 0.68 PPG; Blackburn away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2022, when Burnley won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Burnley's record when hosting Blackburn specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Burnley
1
Draws
0
Blackburn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Blackburn?
From 4 meetings on record, Burnley have won 3, Blackburn have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Blackburn last play each other?
They last met on 4 January 2025, when Blackburn 0-1 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Blackburn?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 56%, Blackburn 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Burnley) and 52% (Blackburn).
On the defensive side: Burnley have failed to score in 36% of games; Blackburn in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Blackburn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Blackburn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Burnley's recent matches and 52% of Blackburn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Blackburn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Burnley's recent games and 52% of Blackburn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Blackburn tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Blackburn in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.