Blackburn 0-1 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Blackburn at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Blackburn vs Hull City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Hull City travel to Ewood Park to take on Blackburn. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 December 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Blackburn have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Blackburn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Blackburn have posted 6W 2D 2L at Ewood Park — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ewood Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hull City stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Championship matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Hull City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hull City's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Blackburn are in the better shape of the two on current Championship data — 1.50 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Blackburn, 3 for Hull City and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2024, ended 1–0 with Blackburn winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Blackburn in-play and half-time data (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Hull City in-play and half-time data (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Blackburn 50% versus Hull City 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Blackburn 54% | Hull City 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Blackburn 1.44 xG and Hull City 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Blackburn attack 0.971 / defence 0.926 | Hull City attack 0.810 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.035. Data: 68 Blackburn games / 69 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Blackburn 51% | Draw 30% | Hull City 19%. Fair-value odds: Blackburn 1.96 | Draw 3.33 | Hull City 5.26. Blackburn hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Blackburn at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Blackburn offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Blackburn 20% | Hull City 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Blackburn vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Ewood Park • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Dec 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Blackburn 51% | Draw 30% | Hull City 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Blackburn 1.44 / Hull City 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Blackburn attack 0.971 / def 0.926 | Hull City attack 0.810 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Blackburn (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Blackburn xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Hull City xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Blackburn vs Hull City kick off?
Blackburn vs Hull City kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 29 December 2024 at Ewood Park.
What was the final score in Blackburn vs Hull City?
Blackburn 0 - 1 Hull City.
Where is Blackburn vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Ewood Park.
What competition is Blackburn vs Hull City part of?
Blackburn vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Blackburn vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Blackburn a 51% chance of winning, Hull City a 19% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Blackburn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Blackburn vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Blackburn and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will Blackburn vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and Hull City?
Record (7 meetings): Blackburn 3W | Draws 1 | Hull City 3W.
What form are Blackburn and Hull City in?
Blackburn (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Hull City (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Blackburn's attack at 0.97x the league average against Hull City's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hull City's attack versus Blackburn's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Blackburn Win
51%
1.95
30%
3.33
19%
5.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Blackburn xG
Total xG
2.21
0.78
Hull City xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
5.35
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
24%
4.24
4%
22.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 8.5 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 12.2 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Blackburn vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Blackburn and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Blackburn and 0.78 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Blackburn vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 68 outings, Blackburn have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 25W 16D 27L record — W-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Blackburn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hull City's form line: 23W 20D 25L from 68 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-L. The sample for Hull City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Blackburn on 1.34 PPG, Hull City on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Blackburn have posted 1.36 PPG from 33 outings (12W 9D 12L).
On the road, Hull City have gone 13W 6D 14L from 33 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Blackburn are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.29 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hull City in 60%.
Last 68 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Blackburn
Blended
Hull City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Blackburn and Hull City in coming into this match?
Blackburn have gone 25W 16D 27L in their last 68 games (1.34 PPG), while Hull City have gone 23W 20D 25L in their last 68 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Blackburn at home or Hull City away?
Blackburn's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Blackburn at home: 1.36 PPG; Hull City away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Blackburn and Hull City runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Aug 2025, when Blackburn won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Blackburn's record when hosting Hull City specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Blackburn
1
Draws
5
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and Hull City?
From 10 meetings on record, Blackburn have won 4, Hull City have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Blackburn and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Blackburn 0-1 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Blackburn and Hull City?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Blackburn 58%, Hull City 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Blackburn) and 61% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: Hull City in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Blackburn home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Blackburn play Hull City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Blackburn's games and 61% of Hull City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Blackburn vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Blackburn's recent games and 61% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Blackburn and Hull City tend to score early?
Blackburn have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Hull City in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hull City defy the odds to beat Blackburn 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Blackburn 0-1 at Ewood Park, Regular Season - 24, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackburn 1.44 xG and Hull City 0.78 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Blackburn fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackburn attack 0.97 / defence 0.93 against Hull City attack 0.81 / defence 1.04, drawn from 68/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Blackburn 51% | Draw 30% | Hull City 19%, with Blackburn to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Hull City win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackburn 54%, Hull City 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Blackburn's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hull City's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Blackburn 1.34 PPG, Hull City 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Blackburn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Hull City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.