Zbrojovka Brno 1-2 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zbrojovka Brno host FK Jablonec at ADAX INVEST Arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 19 March 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Zbrojovka Brno have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zbrojovka Brno, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zbrojovka Brno at ADAX INVEST Arena this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FK Jablonec stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FK Jablonec have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. FK Jablonec's 1.30 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Zbrojovka Brno's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Zbrojovka Brno have won 0, FK Jablonec 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2022, ended 1–3 with FK Jablonec winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Zbrojovka Brno in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 91% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
FK Jablonec in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zbrojovka Brno 70% and FK Jablonec 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Zbrojovka Brno 74% | FK Jablonec 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zbrojovka Brno 1.71 xG and FK Jablonec 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.899 / defence 1.257 | FK Jablonec attack 1.100 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.328. Data: 23 Zbrojovka Brno games / 52 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zbrojovka Brno 35% | Draw 25% | FK Jablonec 40%. Fair-value odds: Zbrojovka Brno 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | FK Jablonec 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.84) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.55 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Zbrojovka Brno 70% | FK Jablonec 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: ADAX INVEST Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Mar 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zbrojovka Brno 35% | Draw 25% | FK Jablonec 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 70% | xG Zbrojovka Brno 1.71 / FK Jablonec 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.899 / def 1.257 | FK Jablonec attack 1.100 / def 1.200 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Zbrojovka Brno xG
Expected Goals
1.84
FK Jablonec xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 19 March 2023 at ADAX INVEST Arena.
What was the final score in Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec?
Zbrojovka Brno 1 - 2 FK Jablonec.
Where is Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at ADAX INVEST Arena.
What competition is Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec part of?
Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Zbrojovka Brno a 35% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Zbrojovka Brno and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zbrojovka Brno and FK Jablonec?
Record (1 meetings): Zbrojovka Brno 0W | Draws 0 | FK Jablonec 1W.
What form are Zbrojovka Brno and FK Jablonec in?
Zbrojovka Brno (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. FK Jablonec (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Zbrojovka Brno's attack rating (0.90) and FK Jablonec's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FK Jablonec's attack versus Zbrojovka Brno's defence, projects 1.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
35%
2.85
25%
4.02
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Zbrojovka Brno xG
Total xG
3.55
1.84
FK Jablonec xG
2.85
35%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.37
Clean Sheet
16%
6.27
18%
5.55
Win to Nil
6%
17.87
7%
13.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.0 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Zbrojovka Brno and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Zbrojovka Brno and 1.84 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zbrojovka Brno come into this having played 23 games, going 7W 6D 10L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-D. The sample for Zbrojovka Brno is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FK Jablonec sit at 1.17 PPG from 23 outings (7W 6D 10L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zbrojovka Brno on 1.17 PPG, FK Jablonec on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Zbrojovka Brno's home form reads 3W 3D 5L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.09 PPG return.
Away from home, FK Jablonec have taken 1.00 points per game from 11 outings (3W 2D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Zbrojovka Brno are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.57 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zbrojovka Brno have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; FK Jablonec in 61%.
Last 23 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zbrojovka Brno
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zbrojovka Brno and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Zbrojovka Brno have gone 7W 6D 10L in their last 23 games (1.17 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 7W 6D 10L in their last 23 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zbrojovka Brno at home or FK Jablonec away?
Zbrojovka Brno's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zbrojovka Brno at home: 1.09 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zbrojovka Brno and FK Jablonec runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
FK Jablonec go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Zbrojovka Brno
0
Draws
3
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zbrojovka Brno and FK Jablonec?
From 3 meetings on record, Zbrojovka Brno have won 0, FK Jablonec have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zbrojovka Brno and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2023, when FK Jablonec 1-0 Zbrojovka Brno.
Who has won more matches between Zbrojovka Brno and FK Jablonec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zbrojovka Brno are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zbrojovka Brno 73%, FK Jablonec 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 91% for Zbrojovka Brno and 73% for FK Jablonec. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 64% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zbrojovka Brno home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zbrojovka Brno play FK Jablonec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Zbrojovka Brno's games and 54% of FK Jablonec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zbrojovka Brno vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 91% of Zbrojovka Brno's matches and 73% of FK Jablonec's.
Do Zbrojovka Brno and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Zbrojovka Brno have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FK Jablonec edge out Zbrojovka Brno 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Zbrojovka Brno 1-2 at ADAX INVEST Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zbrojovka Brno 1.71 xG and FK Jablonec 1.84 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.90 / defence 1.26 against FK Jablonec attack 1.10 / defence 1.20, drawn from 23/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zbrojovka Brno 35% | Draw 25% | FK Jablonec 40%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 74% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zbrojovka Brno 74%, FK Jablonec 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zbrojovka Brno's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zbrojovka Brno 1.17 PPG, FK Jablonec 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FK Jablonec win broke the near-deadlock. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.