Teplice 0-1 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Teplice face Pardubice.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Teplice and Pardubice meet at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech in Czech Liga (matchday 7). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Teplice (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Teplice have gone 4W 5D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pardubice's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Pardubice have gone 3W 0D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Teplice against 1.40 for Pardubice. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Teplice, 1 for Pardubice and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 May 2023, ended Teplice 1–0 Pardubice — a Teplice win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Teplice — key trading statistics (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Pardubice — key trading statistics (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 68% versus Pardubice 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 63% | Pardubice 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.52 xG and Pardubice 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.775 / defence 0.793 | Pardubice attack 0.923 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.641 / away 1.126. Teplice's attack rating of 0.775 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.52. Teplice have a tight defence (rating 0.793), which is pulling Pardubice's projected output down. Data: built from Teplice's last 36 games and Pardubice's last 36.
Result probabilities: Teplice 54% | Draw 26% | Pardubice 20%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 1.86 | Draw 3.86 | Pardubice 4.92. Teplice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Teplice 60% (last 10 home games) | Pardubice 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 7 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 2 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 54% | Draw 26% | Pardubice 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Teplice 1.52 / Pardubice 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.775 / def 0.793 | Pardubice attack 0.923 / def 1.197 | league avg home 1.641 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Teplice (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Pardubice xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Teplice vs Pardubice FAQs
What time does Teplice vs Pardubice kick off?
Teplice vs Pardubice kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 2 September 2023 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Pardubice?
Teplice 0 - 1 Pardubice.
Where is Teplice vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Pardubice part of?
Teplice vs Pardubice is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 7) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 54% chance of winning, Pardubice a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Teplice and Pardubice will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Teplice vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Teplice's attack at 0.78x the league average against Pardubice's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pardubice's attack (0.92x) against Teplice's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from Teplice's last 36 games and Pardubice's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
54%
1.86
26%
3.86
20%
4.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.35
0.82
Pardubice xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
4.92
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
24%
4.24
4%
22.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.0 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Teplice vs Pardubice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Teplice and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Teplice and 0.82 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Teplice come into this having played 41 games, going 13W 11D 17L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-L.
On the other side, Pardubice sit at 1.10 PPG from 41 outings (13W 6D 22L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Teplice against 1.10 for Pardubice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Teplice's home form reads 8W 8D 4L across their last 20 home games, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Pardubice have taken 0.85 points per game from their last 20 away games (5W 2D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Teplice are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.05 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Teplice have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Early Season
Pardubice
Early Season
Teplice (Home) vs Pardubice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Teplice
Early Season
Pardubice
Early Season
❓ Teplice vs Pardubice Form FAQs
What form are Teplice and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 13W 11D 17L in their last 41 games (1.22 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 13W 6D 22L in their last 41 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Pardubice away?
Teplice's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.60 PPG; Pardubice away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Teplice and Pardubice, the earliest from March 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Teplice won Teplice 3-0 Pardubice on 25 May 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 3W 1D 2L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Pardubice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Teplice
3
Draws
3
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Teplice vs Pardubice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Pardubice?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Teplice have won 4, Pardubice have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Pardubice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Teplice 1-4 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Pardubice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 80% of those situations.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 60%, Pardubice 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Teplice) and 55% (Pardubice).
On the defensive side: Pardubice in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Teplice vs Pardubice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Teplice and Pardubice matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Teplice's games and 50% of Pardubice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Teplice and Pardubice matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Teplice's recent games and 55% of Pardubice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Pardubice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Teplice's recent matches and 70% of Pardubice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pardubice defy the odds to beat Teplice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice beat Teplice 0-1 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 7, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.52 xG and Pardubice 0.82 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Teplice fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.78 / defence 0.79 against Pardubice attack 0.92 / defence 1.20, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 54% | Draw 26% | Pardubice 20%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Pardubice win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 63%, Pardubice 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Pardubice's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.22 PPG, Pardubice 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pardubice win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Pardubice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.