Pardubice 0-1 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Slavia Praha (44%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Pardubice face Slavia Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pardubice and Slavia Praha meet at CFIG Arena in Czech Liga (matchday 8). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 September 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Current Form
Pardubice's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Pardubice have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Slavia Praha have collected 2.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Slavia Praha have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Slavia Praha arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head sample leans to Slavia Praha, who have 3 wins from 3 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 4 Feb 2023, ended Pardubice 0–2 Slavia Praha — a Slavia Praha win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Slavia Praha have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 4.3 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Pardubice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 42 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Slavia Praha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 42 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 45% versus Slavia Praha 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 45% | Slavia Praha 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 0.82 xG and Slavia Praha 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.700 / defence 0.938 | Slavia Praha attack 1.117 / defence 0.717. League average goals — home 1.633 / away 1.113. Pardubice's attack rating of 0.700 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.82. Slavia Praha bring a tight defence (rating 0.717, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Pardubice's projected output down. Data: built from Pardubice's last 37 games and Slavia Praha's last 37.
Result probabilities: Pardubice 26% | Draw 30% | Slavia Praha 44%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 3.88 | Draw 3.30 | Slavia Praha 2.28. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Slavia Praha as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.99 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 68% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Pardubice 30% (last 10 home games) | Slavia Praha 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 8 | Venue: CFIG Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 September 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 26% | Draw 30% | Slavia Praha 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Pardubice 0.82 / Slavia Praha 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.700 / def 0.938 | Slavia Praha attack 1.117 / def 0.717 | league avg home 1.633 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Slavia Praha xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pardubice vs Slavia Praha FAQs
What time does Pardubice vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Pardubice vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 16 September 2023 at CFIG Arena.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Slavia Praha?
Pardubice 0 - 1 Slavia Praha.
Where is Pardubice vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at CFIG Arena.
What competition is Pardubice vs Slavia Praha part of?
Pardubice vs Slavia Praha is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 8) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 26% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Pardubice and Slavia Praha will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Pardubice vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Pardubice's attack rating (0.70) and Slavia Praha's defence rating (0.72), the model arrives at 0.82 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Slavia Praha's attack (1.12x) against Pardubice's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from Pardubice's last 37 games and Slavia Praha's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 0-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
26%
3.88
30%
3.30
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Pardubice xG
Total xG
1.99
1.17
Slavia Praha xG
3.88
26%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.60
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
8%
12.47
19%
5.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 16.0 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pardubice vs Slavia Praha Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.17 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pardubice come into this having played 42 games, going 14W 6D 22L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Slavia Praha sit at 2.31 PPG from 42 outings (30W 7D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five.
Slavia Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.17 PPG clear of Pardubice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Pardubice's home form reads 7W 4D 9L across their last 20 home games, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Slavia Praha have taken 1.65 points per game from their last 20 away games (9W 6D 5L). That's a step down from their 2.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slavia Praha's recent record.
Attack vs Defence
Pardubice are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.69 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Early Season
Slavia Praha
Early Season
Pardubice (Home) vs Slavia Praha (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pardubice
Early Season
Slavia Praha
Early Season
❓ Pardubice vs Slavia Praha Form FAQs
What form are Pardubice and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 14W 6D 22L in their last 42 games (1.14 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 30W 7D 5L in their last 42 (2.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Slavia Praha away?
Slavia Praha's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.25 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Pardubice or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pardubice have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Pardubice and Slavia Praha, the earliest from April 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 9 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won Slavia Praha 7-0 Pardubice on 21 Aug 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pardubice have gone 0W 1D 3L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Slavia Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Pardubice
1
Draws
9
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Pardubice vs Slavia Praha H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Slavia Praha?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Pardubice have won 0, Slavia Praha have won 9, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Slavia Praha last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 August 2026: Slavia Praha 2-1 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 40%, Slavia Praha 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Pardubice) and 50% (Slavia Praha).
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 45% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pardubice vs Slavia Praha Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pardubice and Slavia Praha matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Pardubice's recent matches and 55% of Slavia Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Pardubice and Slavia Praha matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Pardubice's recent games and 50% of Slavia Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Slavia Praha matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Pardubice's recent matches and 80% of Slavia Praha's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slavia Praha edge out Pardubice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Pardubice 0-1 at CFIG Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 0.82 xG and Slavia Praha 1.17 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pardubice fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.70 / defence 0.94 against Slavia Praha attack 1.12 / defence 0.72, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 26% | Draw 30% | Slavia Praha 44%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 45%, Slavia Praha 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.