Teplice 0-1 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs FK Jablonec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FK Jablonec make the trip to AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech to face Teplice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 April 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Teplice (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Teplice have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
FK Jablonec have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FK Jablonec have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Teplice against 1.50 for FK Jablonec. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Teplice, 3 for FK Jablonec and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 0–3 with FK Jablonec winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Teplice — key trading statistics (61 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (61 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 52% versus FK Jablonec 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 43% | FK Jablonec 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.44 xG and FK Jablonec 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.928 / defence 0.923 | FK Jablonec attack 1.017 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.152. Data: 57 Teplice games / 57 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 44% | Draw 30% | FK Jablonec 27%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | FK Jablonec 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Teplice at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Teplice 50% | FK Jablonec 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Apr 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 44% | Draw 30% | FK Jablonec 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Teplice 1.44 / FK Jablonec 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.928 / def 0.923 | FK Jablonec attack 1.017 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Teplice (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.08
FK Jablonec xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Teplice vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 6 April 2025 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs FK Jablonec?
Teplice 0 - 1 FK Jablonec.
Where is Teplice vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs FK Jablonec part of?
Teplice vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 44% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Teplice and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and FK Jablonec?
Record (6 meetings): Teplice 2W | Draws 1 | FK Jablonec 3W.
What form are Teplice and FK Jablonec in?
Teplice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. FK Jablonec (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Teplice's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against FK Jablonec's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (1.02x) against Teplice's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
44%
2.29
30%
3.35
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.53
1.08
FK Jablonec xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
6%
15.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.5 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Teplice and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Teplice and 1.08 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 61 outings, Teplice have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 19W 15D 27L record — L-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FK Jablonec's form line: 21W 20D 20L from 61 games, 1.36 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-D. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Teplice against 1.36 for FK Jablonec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Teplice have posted 1.41 PPG from 29 outings (11W 8D 10L).
On the road, FK Jablonec have gone 6W 10D 13L from 29 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Teplice are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.44 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 19W 15D 27L in their last 61 games (1.18 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 21W 20D 20L in their last 61 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or FK Jablonec away?
Teplice's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.41 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Teplice or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 4-1 on 26 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Teplice
1
Draws
6
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 3, FK Jablonec have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Teplice 2-0 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and FK Jablonec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 48%, FK Jablonec 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Teplice) and 41% (FK Jablonec).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; FK Jablonec in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Teplice's recent matches and 45% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Teplice's recent games and 41% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FK Jablonec defy the odds to beat Teplice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Teplice 0-1 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 28, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.44 xG and FK Jablonec 1.08 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Teplice fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.93 / defence 0.92 against FK Jablonec attack 1.02 / defence 1.11, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 44% | Draw 30% | FK Jablonec 27%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual FK Jablonec win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 43%, FK Jablonec 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (61 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (61 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.18 PPG, FK Jablonec 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FK Jablonec win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.