Teplice 2-2 Dukla Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Dukla Praha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Relegation Round - 1 as Teplice welcome Dukla Praha to AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech. Kick-off is set for Sunday 27 April 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Teplice have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Teplice's home record at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Teplice are significantly better at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech than their overall form suggests.
Dukla Praha — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Dukla Praha's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Teplice) versus 1.10 (Dukla Praha). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Teplice, 0 for Dukla Praha and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Teplice trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Dukla Praha trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 57% versus Dukla Praha 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 40% | Dukla Praha 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.28 xG and Dukla Praha 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.852 / defence 0.812 | Dukla Praha attack 0.760 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.203. Data: 60 Teplice games / 30 Dukla Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 49% | Draw 29% | Dukla Praha 21%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Dukla Praha 4.76. Teplice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.02 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 30% | Dukla Praha 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Dukla Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Apr 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 49% | Draw 29% | Dukla Praha 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 38% | xG Teplice 1.28 / Dukla Praha 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.852 / def 0.812 | Dukla Praha attack 0.760 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Teplice (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Dukla Praha xG
38%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Dukla Praha kick off?
Teplice vs Dukla Praha kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 27 April 2025 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Dukla Praha?
Teplice 2 - 2 Dukla Praha.
Where is Teplice vs Dukla Praha being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Dukla Praha part of?
Teplice vs Dukla Praha is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Dukla Praha?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 49% chance of winning, Dukla Praha a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Dukla Praha?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Teplice and Dukla Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Dukla Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Dukla Praha?
Record (2 meetings): Teplice 0W | Draws 2 | Dukla Praha 0W.
What form are Teplice and Dukla Praha in?
Teplice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Dukla Praha (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Teplice's attack rating (0.85) and Dukla Praha's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dukla Praha's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
49%
2.03
29%
3.39
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.02
0.74
Dukla Praha xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
23%
4.27
6%
16.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 9.8 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 12.6 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 8.1 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Dukla Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Teplice and Dukla Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Teplice and 0.74 for Dukla Praha, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Dukla Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Teplice's recent record stands at 9W 7D 14L from 30 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-W in the last five.
Dukla Praha, meanwhile, have gone 5W 9D 16L across 30 games — 0.80 PPG, with W-D-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Teplice on 1.13 PPG, Dukla Praha on 0.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Teplice have managed 7W 1D 7L from 15 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dukla Praha's away record stands at 2W 5D 8L across 15 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Teplice are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Dukla Praha are on 0.77 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Current Season
Dukla Praha
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Dukla Praha in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 9W 7D 14L in their last 30 games (1.13 PPG), while Dukla Praha have gone 5W 9D 16L in their last 30 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Dukla Praha away?
Teplice's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.47 PPG; Dukla Praha away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Teplice or Dukla Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Dukla Praha in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Teplice's record when hosting Dukla Praha specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Teplice
4
Draws
0
Dukla Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Dukla Praha?
From 6 meetings on record, Teplice have won 2, Dukla Praha have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Dukla Praha last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Teplice 2-0 Dukla Praha.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Dukla Praha?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 53%, Dukla Praha 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Teplice) and 40% (Dukla Praha).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Dukla Praha in 33%; Dukla Praha in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Dukla Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Dukla Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Teplice's recent matches and 40% of Dukla Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Dukla Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Teplice's recent games and 40% of Dukla Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Dukla Praha tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Dukla Praha in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Teplice and Dukla Praha share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice and Dukla Praha finished level at 2-2 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Relegation Round - 1, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.28 xG and Dukla Praha 0.74 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Dukla Praha outscored their 0.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.85 / defence 0.81 against Dukla Praha attack 0.76 / defence 1.11, drawn from 60/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 49% | Draw 29% | Dukla Praha 21%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 40%, Dukla Praha 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Dukla Praha's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.13 PPG, Dukla Praha 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.