Sparta Praha 0-0 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sparta Praha at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sparta Praha vs Slavia Praha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Slavia Praha make the trip to epet ARENA to face Sparta Praha in Czech Liga, Championship Round - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 May 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sparta Praha have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sparta Praha at epet ARENA this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at epet ARENA.
Slavia Praha (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Slavia Praha's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.30 PPG for Sparta Praha against 2.30 for Slavia Praha. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sparta Praha lead 1W to 0W over the last 4 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sparta Praha — key trading statistics (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Slavia Praha — key trading statistics (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 58% versus Slavia Praha 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 61% | Slavia Praha 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 1.40 xG and Slavia Praha 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.288 / defence 0.915 | Slavia Praha attack 1.158 / defence 0.710. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.289. Sparta Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.288 — their λ of 1.40 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Slavia Praha's defence strength of 0.710 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 60 Sparta Praha games / 60 Slavia Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 37% | Draw 28% | Slavia Praha 35%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Slavia Praha 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Praha as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Praha 50% | Slavia Praha 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Praha vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: epet ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Praha 37% | Draw 28% | Slavia Praha 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Sparta Praha 1.40 / Slavia Praha 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Praha attack 1.288 / def 0.915 | Slavia Praha attack 1.158 / def 0.710 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Sparta Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Slavia Praha xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Praha vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Sparta Praha vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 11 May 2024 at epet ARENA.
What was the final score in Sparta Praha vs Slavia Praha?
Sparta Praha 0 - 0 Slavia Praha.
Where is Sparta Praha vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at epet ARENA.
What competition is Sparta Praha vs Slavia Praha part of?
Sparta Praha vs Slavia Praha is a Championship Round - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Praha vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Praha a 37% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Sparta Praha and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Praha vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Slavia Praha?
Record (4 meetings): Sparta Praha 1W | Draws 3 | Slavia Praha 0W.
What form are Sparta Praha and Slavia Praha in?
Sparta Praha (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Slavia Praha (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sparta Praha's attack at 1.29x the league average against Slavia Praha's defence at 0.71x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Slavia Praha's attack (1.16x) against Sparta Praha's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
37%
2.72
28%
3.59
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
2.76
1.36
Slavia Praha xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
9%
10.63
9%
11.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.0 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 1.36 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sparta Praha come into this having played 66 games, going 48W 13D 5L for 2.38 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Slavia Praha sit at 2.32 PPG from 66 outings (47W 12D 7L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.38 PPG for Sparta Praha against 2.32 for Slavia Praha. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sparta Praha's home form reads 25W 6D 1L across 32 games on their own ground, a 2.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Slavia Praha have taken 1.88 points per game from 32 outings (17W 9D 6L). That's a step down from their 2.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slavia Praha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sparta Praha are averaging 2.27 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.50 scored and 0.82 conceded. Sparta Praha's scoring rate against Slavia Praha's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Slavia Praha in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Praha
Current Season
Slavia Praha
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Praha and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Sparta Praha have gone 48W 13D 5L in their last 66 games (2.38 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 47W 12D 7L in their last 66 (2.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Praha at home or Slavia Praha away?
Sparta Praha's home record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Praha at home: 2.53 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Sparta Praha or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sparta Praha have gone 2W 4D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Slavia Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sparta Praha
5
Draws
3
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Slavia Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Praha have won 2, Slavia Praha have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Praha and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Slavia Praha 3-1 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Praha and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Praha 59%, Slavia Praha 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Sparta Praha) and 50% (Slavia Praha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Slavia Praha in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Praha home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Praha play Slavia Praha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Sparta Praha's games and 53% of Slavia Praha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Praha vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Sparta Praha's matches and 50% of Slavia Praha's.
Do Sparta Praha and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
Sparta Praha have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sparta Praha's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at epet ARENA, Championship Round - 2, as Sparta Praha and Slavia Praha drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.40 xG and Slavia Praha 1.36 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sparta Praha fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Slavia Praha landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.29 / defence 0.92 against Slavia Praha attack 1.16 / defence 0.71, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 37% | Draw 28% | Slavia Praha 35%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 61%, Slavia Praha 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Praha's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sparta Praha 2.38 PPG, Slavia Praha 2.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.