Sparta Praha 1-0 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Praha at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
epet ARENA plays host to Sparta Praha versus Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 7 December 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sparta Praha have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sparta Praha have posted 5W 3D 2L at epet ARENA — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Sparta Praha are significantly better at epet ARENA than their overall form suggests.
Bohemians 1905's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Sparta Praha against 1.30 for Bohemians 1905. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sparta Praha have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, Bohemians 1905 in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Sparta Praha, who have won 6 of the last 7 meetings against Bohemians 1905 — a 1D 0W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2024, ended 2–1 with Sparta Praha winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sparta Praha and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Sparta Praha half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Bohemians 1905 half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 64% versus Bohemians 1905 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 64% | Bohemians 1905 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 1.61 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.187 / defence 1.156 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.997 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.178. Data: 47 Sparta Praha games / 47 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 41% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 1905 30%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Bohemians 1905 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Praha as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Praha 90% | Bohemians 1905 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: epet ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Dec 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Praha 41% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 1905 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Sparta Praha 1.61 / Bohemians 1905 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Praha attack 1.187 / def 1.156 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.997 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.482 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Sparta Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Bohemians 1905 xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 7 December 2024 at epet ARENA.
What was the final score in Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Sparta Praha 1 - 0 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at epet ARENA.
What competition is Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Praha a 41% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905?
Record (7 meetings): Sparta Praha 6W | Draws 1 | Bohemians 1905 0W.
What form are Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905 in?
Sparta Praha (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sparta Praha's attack at 1.19x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (1.00x) against Sparta Praha's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
41%
2.42
28%
3.53
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
2.97
1.36
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
11%
9.40
6%
16.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.2 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 1.36 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sparta Praha come into this having played 52 games, going 36W 10D 6L for 2.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-W. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 1.15 PPG from 52 outings (14W 18D 20L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.12 PPG clear of Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sparta Praha's home form reads 17W 6D 2L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 1.20 points per game from 25 outings (7W 9D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sparta Praha are averaging 2.19 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.06 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Praha have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Praha
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Sparta Praha have gone 36W 10D 6L in their last 52 games (2.27 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 14W 18D 20L in their last 52 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Praha at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Sparta Praha's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Praha at home: 2.28 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Sparta Praha or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 5-1 on 12 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sparta Praha have gone 5W 1D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Sparta Praha
1
Draws
1
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Praha have won 8, Bohemians 1905 have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Bohemians 1905 2-0 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Praha 68%, Bohemians 1905 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Sparta Praha and 52% for Bohemians 1905. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Praha home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Praha play Bohemians 1905?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Sparta Praha's games and 60% of Bohemians 1905's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Sparta Praha's matches and 52% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Sparta Praha have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sparta Praha edge out Bohemians 1905 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Bohemians 1905 1-0 at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 18, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.61 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.36 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bohemians 1905 landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.19 / defence 1.16 against Bohemians 1905 attack 1.00 / defence 0.92, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 41% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 1905 30%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 64%, Bohemians 1905 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Praha's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.