Slovácko 2-1 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovácko at 37%, yet in-form Teplice provide a compelling counter-argument — this Slovácko vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 5 as Slovácko welcome Teplice to Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 August 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovácko have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Slovácko have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Slovácko's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Teplice stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Teplice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Teplice have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Teplice — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Slovácko have won 3, Teplice 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2025, ended 0–1 with Teplice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Slovácko in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Teplice in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 42% versus Teplice 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 42% | Teplice 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.15 xG and Teplice 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 0.738 / defence 1.068 | Teplice attack 0.808 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.237. Slovácko's attack strength of 0.738 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 34 Slovácko games / 33 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovácko 37% | Draw 30% | Teplice 33%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Teplice 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovácko at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Teplice (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slovácko offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Slovácko 40% | Teplice 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Aug 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 37% | Draw 30% | Teplice 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Slovácko 1.15 / Teplice 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 0.738 / def 1.068 | Teplice attack 0.808 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Teplice xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs Teplice kick off?
Slovácko vs Teplice kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 16 August 2025 at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs Teplice?
Slovácko 2 - 1 Teplice.
Where is Slovácko vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs Teplice part of?
Slovácko vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 37% chance of winning, Teplice a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Slovácko and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Teplice?
Record (7 meetings): Slovácko 3W | Draws 1 | Teplice 3W.
What form are Slovácko and Teplice in?
Slovácko (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Teplice (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Slovácko's attack rating (0.74) and Teplice's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Teplice's attack versus Slovácko's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
37%
2.72
30%
3.28
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Slovácko xG
Total xG
2.21
1.07
Teplice xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
13%
7.91
10%
9.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 11.7 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Slovácko and 1.07 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Slovácko's recent record stands at 9W 12D 17L from 38 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Slovácko, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Teplice, meanwhile, have gone 13W 8D 17L across 38 games — 1.24 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Teplice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slovácko on 1.03 PPG, Teplice on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Slovácko have managed 6W 6D 6L from 18 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Teplice's away record stands at 3W 6D 9L across 18 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Teplice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovácko come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Slovácko are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.18 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Early Season
Teplice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and Teplice in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 9W 12D 17L in their last 38 games (1.03 PPG), while Teplice have gone 13W 8D 17L in their last 38 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or Teplice away?
Slovácko's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 1.33 PPG; Teplice away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Slovácko and Teplice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Slovácko's record when hosting Teplice specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Slovácko
2
Draws
4
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 4, Teplice have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Teplice 1-1 Slovácko.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 39%, Teplice 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Slovácko) and 39% (Teplice).
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Slovácko have failed to score in 44% of games; Teplice in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play Teplice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Slovácko's recent matches and 50% of Teplice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovácko vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Slovácko's recent games and 39% of Teplice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovácko and Teplice tend to score early?
Slovácko have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Teplice in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slovácko edge out Teplice 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko beat Teplice 2-1 at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 5, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.15 xG and Teplice 1.07 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Slovácko beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.74 / defence 1.07 against Teplice attack 0.81 / defence 1.16, drawn from 34/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 37% | Draw 30% | Teplice 33%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 42%, Teplice 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Teplice's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovácko 1.03 PPG, Teplice 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovácko win broke the near-deadlock. Slovácko (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.