Slovácko 1-0 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovácko at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovácko vs Pardubice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Slovácko host Pardubice at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty in Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 April 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slovácko stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Slovácko at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Slovácko are significantly better at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty than their overall form suggests.
Pardubice — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Pardubice away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Slovácko 0.50 PPG, Pardubice 0.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Slovácko, 2 for Pardubice and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Slovácko trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Pardubice trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 46% versus Pardubice 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 46% | Pardubice 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.54 xG and Pardubice 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 0.804 / defence 1.450 | Pardubice attack 0.744 / defence 1.407. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.203. Pardubice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.407 — this is suppressing Slovácko's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Slovácko games / 60 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovácko 43% | Draw 25% | Pardubice 32%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Pardubice 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Slovácko as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slovácko offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Slovácko 50% | Pardubice 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Apr 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 43% | Draw 25% | Pardubice 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Slovácko 1.54 / Pardubice 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 0.804 / def 1.450 | Pardubice attack 0.744 / def 1.407 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Pardubice xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs Pardubice kick off?
Slovácko vs Pardubice kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 April 2025 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs Pardubice?
Slovácko 1 - 0 Pardubice.
Where is Slovácko vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs Pardubice part of?
Slovácko vs Pardubice is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 43% chance of winning, Pardubice a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Slovácko and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Pardubice?
Record (6 meetings): Slovácko 3W | Draws 1 | Pardubice 2W.
What form are Slovácko and Pardubice in?
Slovácko (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Pardubice (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Slovácko's attack at 0.80x the league average against Pardubice's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pardubice's attack versus Slovácko's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
43%
2.34
25%
3.96
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Slovácko xG
Total xG
2.84
1.30
Pardubice xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
12%
8.58
7%
14.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.7 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Slovácko and 1.30 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Slovácko come into this having played 65 games, going 19W 17D 29L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Pardubice sit at 0.91 PPG from 65 outings (15W 14D 36L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slovácko on 1.14 PPG, Pardubice on 0.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Slovácko's home form reads 10W 11D 11L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Pardubice have taken 0.81 points per game from 32 outings (7W 5D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovácko come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Slovácko are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 0.94 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Current Season
Pardubice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 19W 17D 29L in their last 65 games (1.14 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 15W 14D 36L in their last 65 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or Pardubice away?
Slovácko's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 1.28 PPG; Pardubice away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Slovácko and Pardubice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Slovácko's record when hosting Pardubice specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Slovácko
3
Draws
2
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 5, Pardubice have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Slovácko 0-0 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and Pardubice?
Slovácko have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 50%, Pardubice 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Slovácko) and 50% (Pardubice).
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Slovácko have failed to score in 31% of games; Pardubice in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play Pardubice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Slovácko's recent matches and 41% of Pardubice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovácko vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Slovácko's recent games and 50% of Pardubice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovácko and Pardubice tend to score early?
Slovácko have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slovácko edge out Pardubice 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko beat Pardubice 1-0 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Relegation Round - 1, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.54 xG and Pardubice 1.30 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Pardubice landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.80 / defence 1.45 against Pardubice attack 0.74 / defence 1.41, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 43% | Draw 25% | Pardubice 32%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 46%, Pardubice 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Pardubice's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovácko 1.14 PPG, Pardubice 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovácko win broke the near-deadlock. Slovácko (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.