Slovácko 0-0 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Slovácko (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Slovácko face České Budějovice.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Relegation Round - 2 sees České Budějovice travel to Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty to take on Slovácko. The game is scheduled for Sunday 4 May 2025, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Slovácko — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Slovácko at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Slovácko are significantly better at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, České Budějovice have recorded 0W 1D 9L from 10 outings — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
České Budějovice's away record: 0W 1D 9L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game.
Slovácko are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 0.70 PPG ahead (0.80 vs 0.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Slovácko: 5 wins from 8 previous clashes against 1 for České Budějovice, with 2 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2025, ended 2–1 with Slovácko winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Slovácko and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Slovácko trading profile (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
České Budějovice trading profile (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 46% versus České Budějovice 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 46% | České Budějovice 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.61 xG and České Budějovice 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 0.810 / defence 1.435 | České Budějovice attack 0.633 / defence 1.464. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.203. České Budějovice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.464 — this is suppressing Slovácko's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Slovácko games / 60 České Budějovice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovácko 49% | Draw 25% | České Budějovice 26%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | České Budějovice 3.85. Slovácko hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Slovácko as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slovácko offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Slovácko 50% | České Budějovice 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Sunday 4 May 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 49% | Draw 25% | České Budějovice 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Slovácko 1.61 / České Budějovice 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 0.810 / def 1.435 | České Budějovice attack 0.633 / def 1.464 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
1.09
České Budějovice xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs České Budějovice kick off?
Slovácko vs České Budějovice kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 4 May 2025 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs České Budějovice?
Slovácko 0 - 0 České Budějovice.
Where is Slovácko vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs České Budějovice part of?
Slovácko vs České Budějovice is a Relegation Round - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 49% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Slovácko and České Budějovice will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and České Budějovice?
Record (8 meetings): Slovácko 5W | Draws 2 | České Budějovice 1W.
What form are Slovácko and České Budějovice in?
Slovácko (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. České Budějovice (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Slovácko's attack at 0.81x the league average against České Budějovice's defence at 1.46x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, České Budějovice's attack versus Slovácko's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
49%
2.03
25%
3.98
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Slovácko xG
Total xG
2.70
1.09
České Budějovice xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
17%
6.06
5%
19.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.8 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Slovácko and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Slovácko and 1.09 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs České Budějovice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Slovácko come into this having played 66 games, going 20W 17D 29L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W.
On the other side, České Budějovice sit at 0.58 PPG from 66 outings (8W 14D 44L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five.
Slovácko carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of České Budějovice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Slovácko's home form reads 11W 11D 11L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, České Budějovice have taken 0.21 points per game from 33 outings (0W 7D 26L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovácko come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Slovácko are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 0.86 scored and 2.20 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Current Season
České Budějovice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 20W 17D 29L in their last 66 games (1.17 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 8W 14D 44L in their last 66 (0.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or České Budějovice away?
Slovácko's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 1.33 PPG; České Budějovice away: 0.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Slovácko and České Budějovice runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Jul 2023, when Slovácko won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slovácko's record when hosting České Budějovice specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Slovácko
3
Draws
1
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and České Budějovice?
From 9 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 5, České Budějovice have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and České Budějovice last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when Slovácko 0-0 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and České Budějovice?
Slovácko have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 48%, České Budějovice 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Slovácko) and 64% (České Budějovice).
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Slovácko have failed to score in 30% of games; České Budějovice in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play České Budějovice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Slovácko's recent matches and 54% of České Budějovice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovácko vs České Budějovice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Slovácko's recent games and 64% of České Budějovice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovácko and České Budějovice tend to score early?
Slovácko have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, České Budějovice in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Slovácko's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko and České Budějovice finished level at 0-0 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Relegation Round - 2, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.61 xG and České Budějovice 1.09 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Slovácko fell 1.6 short of their projected output. České Budějovice landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.81 / defence 1.44 against České Budějovice attack 0.63 / defence 1.46, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 49% | Draw 25% | České Budějovice 26%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 46%, České Budějovice 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
České Budějovice's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovácko arrived the stronger side — 1.17 PPG against 0.58. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Slovácko (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. České Budějovice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.