Slavia Praha 4-3 Plzen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Slavia Praha at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slavia Praha vs Plzen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Championship Round - 2 sees Plzen travel to Fortuna Arena to take on Slavia Praha. The game is scheduled for Saturday 3 May 2025, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slavia Praha stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Fortuna Arena, Slavia Praha have gone 10W 0D 0L this season (10 games, 3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Fortuna Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.50 — Slavia Praha are significantly better at Fortuna Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Plzen have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Plzen away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Slavia Praha 2.50 PPG, Plzen 2.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Slavia Praha, 2 for Plzen and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2025, ended 3–1 with Slavia Praha winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Slavia Praha trading profile (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
Plzen trading profile (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 38% versus Plzen 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 54% | Plzen 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 1.44 xG and Plzen 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.300 / defence 0.580 | Plzen attack 1.266 / defence 0.816. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.203. Slavia Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.300 — their λ of 1.44 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Plzen have an above-average attack strength of 1.266 — the away xG of 0.88 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Slavia Praha's defence rating of 0.580 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 Slavia Praha games / 60 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 50% | Draw 27% | Plzen 23%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Plzen 4.35. Slavia Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Slavia Praha as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Slavia Praha 30% | Plzen 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: Fortuna Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 3 May 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 50% | Draw 27% | Plzen 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG Slavia Praha 1.44 / Plzen 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.300 / def 0.580 | Plzen attack 1.266 / def 0.816 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Plzen xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slavia Praha vs Plzen kick off?
Slavia Praha vs Plzen kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 3 May 2025 at Fortuna Arena.
What was the final score in Slavia Praha vs Plzen?
Slavia Praha 4 - 3 Plzen.
Where is Slavia Praha vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Arena.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs Plzen part of?
Slavia Praha vs Plzen is a Championship Round - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 50% chance of winning, Plzen a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Slavia Praha and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Slavia Praha vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Plzen?
Record (6 meetings): Slavia Praha 4W | Draws 0 | Plzen 2W.
What form are Slavia Praha and Plzen in?
Slavia Praha (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Plzen (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Slavia Praha's attack at 1.30x the league average against Plzen's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Slavia Praha's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
50%
2.00
27%
3.68
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
2.33
0.88
Plzen xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
21%
4.84
5%
18.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.5 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 0.88 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 66 outings, Slavia Praha have picked up 2.52 PPG on a 52W 10D 4L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Plzen's form line: 42W 12D 12L from 66 games, 2.09 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Slavia Praha are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Plzen.
Venue Form
On home soil, Slavia Praha have posted 2.78 PPG from 32 outings (29W 2D 1L).
On the road, Plzen have gone 18W 7D 7L from 32 away games — 1.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.15 goals scored and 0.53 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 2.08 scored and 1.03 conceded. Plzen's attacking output running into Slavia Praha's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Current Season
Plzen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slavia Praha and Plzen in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 52W 10D 4L in their last 66 games (2.52 PPG), while Plzen have gone 42W 12D 12L in their last 66 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slavia Praha at home or Plzen away?
Slavia Praha's home record (2.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slavia Praha at home: 2.78 PPG; Plzen away: 1.91 PPG.
Have Slavia Praha or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their recent games, Plzen in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2024, when Slavia Praha won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slavia Praha's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 5W 1D 1L from 7 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Slavia Praha
1
Draws
2
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Slavia Praha have won 7, Plzen have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Slavia Praha 3-0 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and Plzen?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slavia Praha 38%, Plzen 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Slavia Praha and 56% for Plzen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slavia Praha play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 56% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slavia Praha vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Slavia Praha's matches and 56% of Plzen's.
Do Slavia Praha and Plzen tend to score early?
Slavia Praha have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Plzen in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slavia Praha edge out Plzen 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Plzen 4-3 at Fortuna Arena, Championship Round - 2, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 1.44 xG and Plzen 0.88 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Slavia Praha beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Plzen outscored their 0.88 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.30 / defence 0.58 against Plzen attack 1.27 / defence 0.82, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 50% | Draw 27% | Plzen 23%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 54%, Plzen 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slavia Praha's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and conceded here.
Plzen's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.52 PPG against 2.09. Form held, and they took the win. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.53 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.