Slavia Praha 2-1 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slavia Praha at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 28 as Slavia Praha welcome Hradec Králové to Fortuna Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 April 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slavia Praha have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slavia Praha's form when playing at home: 10W 0D 0L across 10 games at Fortuna Arena this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Fortuna Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Slavia Praha are significantly better at Fortuna Arena than their overall form suggests.
Hradec Králové — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.20 PPG (Slavia Praha) versus 1.80 (Hradec Králové). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Slavia Praha's 20% rate and Hradec Králové's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Slavia Praha, 2 for Hradec Králové and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Slavia Praha in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 39% versus Hradec Králové 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 54% | Hradec Králové 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 1.75 xG and Hradec Králové 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.301 / defence 0.558 | Hradec Králové attack 0.938 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.147. Slavia Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.301 — their λ of 1.75 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Slavia Praha's defence rating of 0.558 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Slavia Praha games / 56 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 64% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 11%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 1.56 | Draw 4.00 | Hradec Králové 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (64%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Slavia Praha as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Slavia Praha 20% | Hradec Králové 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Fortuna Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Apr 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 64% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 39% | xG Slavia Praha 1.75 / Hradec Králové 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.301 / def 0.558 | Hradec Králové attack 0.938 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.60
Hradec Králové xG
39%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Fortuna Arena.
What was the final score in Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Slavia Praha 2 - 1 Hradec Králové.
Where is Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Arena.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové part of?
Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 64% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 11% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Slavia Praha and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Hradec Králové?
Record (6 meetings): Slavia Praha 2W | Draws 2 | Hradec Králové 2W.
What form are Slavia Praha and Hradec Králové in?
Slavia Praha (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Hradec Králové (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Slavia Praha's attack rating (1.30) and Hradec Králové's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Slavia Praha's defence, projects 0.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.6%), 1-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
64%
1.56
25%
3.96
11%
9.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
2.35
0.60
Hradec Králové xG
1.56
64%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
9.25
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
55%
1.82
17%
5.77
Win to Nil
35%
2.85
2%
53.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 10.0 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.6 | 8.8 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 0.60 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Slavia Praha come into this having played 61 games, going 47W 10D 4L for 2.48 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hradec Králové sit at 1.41 PPG from 61 outings (23W 17D 21L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slavia Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.07 PPG clear of Hradec Králové — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Slavia Praha's home form reads 27W 2D 1L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Hradec Králové have taken 1.07 points per game from 30 outings (8W 8D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 0.56 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.13 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their games; Hradec Králové in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slavia Praha and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 47W 10D 4L in their last 61 games (2.48 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 23W 17D 21L in their last 61 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slavia Praha at home or Hradec Králové away?
Slavia Praha's home record (2.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slavia Praha at home: 2.77 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Slavia Praha or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Hradec Králové have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Slavia Praha's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Slavia Praha
3
Draws
4
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Slavia Praha have won 3, Hradec Králové have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Hradec Králové 3-1 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and Hradec Králové?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Hradec Králové see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slavia Praha 37%, Hradec Králové 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Slavia Praha) and 40% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 63% of their matches; Hradec Králové in 33%; Hradec Králové in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slavia Praha play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 37% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slavia Praha vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Slavia Praha's recent games and 40% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slavia Praha and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Slavia Praha have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slavia Praha edge out Hradec Králové 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Hradec Králové 2-1 at Fortuna Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 1.75 xG and Hradec Králové 0.60 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.30 / defence 0.56 against Hradec Králové attack 0.94 / defence 0.96, drawn from 57/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 64% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 11%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 54%, Hradec Králové 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slavia Praha's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.48 PPG against 1.41. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.