Sigma Olomouc 0-3 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Baník Ostrava travel to Andrův stadion to take on Sigma Olomouc. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 September 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Sigma Olomouc have gone 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Andrův stadion, Sigma Olomouc have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Andrův stadion this season.
Baník Ostrava — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baník Ostrava away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Sigma Olomouc carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Sigma Olomouc, 2 for Baník Ostrava and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2023, ended 1–4 with Baník Ostrava winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sigma Olomouc trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Baník Ostrava trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sigma Olomouc 59% and Baník Ostrava 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 59% | Baník Ostrava 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.69 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.028 / defence 0.939 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.904 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.761 / away 1.203. Data: 39 Sigma Olomouc games / 39 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 53% | Draw 24% | Baník Ostrava 23%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Baník Ostrava 4.35. Sigma Olomouc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 70% | Baník Ostrava 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Sep 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 53% | Draw 24% | Baník Ostrava 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.69 / Baník Ostrava 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.028 / def 0.939 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.904 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.761 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Baník Ostrava xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava?
Sigma Olomouc 0 - 3 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 53% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Baník Ostrava?
Record (3 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 1W | Draws 0 | Baník Ostrava 2W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Baník Ostrava in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sigma Olomouc's attack at 1.03x the league average against Baník Ostrava's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus Sigma Olomouc's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
53%
1.88
24%
4.15
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.71
1.02
Baník Ostrava xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
18%
5.44
Win to Nil
19%
5.23
4%
23.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.5 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.02 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sigma Olomouc's recent record stands at 18W 12D 14L from 44 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baník Ostrava, meanwhile, have gone 15W 11D 18L across 44 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sigma Olomouc on 1.50 PPG, Baník Ostrava on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sigma Olomouc have managed 9W 5D 7L from 21 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Baník Ostrava's away record stands at 3W 9D 9L across 21 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Baník Ostrava's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sigma Olomouc come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.52 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baník Ostrava in 61%.
Last 44 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 18W 12D 14L in their last 44 games (1.50 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 15W 11D 18L in their last 44 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.52 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jul 2022, when Sigma Olomouc won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sigma Olomouc's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sigma Olomouc
2
Draws
5
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 3, Baník Ostrava have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Baník Ostrava 2-0 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sigma Olomouc at 67%, Baník Ostrava at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Sigma Olomouc) and 48% (Baník Ostrava). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Baník Ostrava?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Sigma Olomouc's games and 71% of Baník Ostrava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 48% of Baník Ostrava's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Baník Ostrava run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Sigma Olomouc.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat Sigma Olomouc 0-3 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.69 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.02 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Baník Ostrava outscored their 1.02 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.03 / defence 0.94 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.90 / defence 0.94, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 53% | Draw 24% | Baník Ostrava 23%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Baník Ostrava win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 59%, Baník Ostrava 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.50 PPG, Baník Ostrava 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Baník Ostrava win broke the near-deadlock. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.