Pardubice 1-1 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pardubice at 43%, yet in-form Hradec Králové provide a compelling counter-argument — this Pardubice vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Hradec Králové travel to CFIG Arena to take on Pardubice in Czech Liga (matchday 10). The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 October 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Pardubice have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Pardubice at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Pardubice are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Hradec Králové — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Hradec Králové have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hradec Králové are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Pardubice have won 2, Hradec Králové 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 22 Apr 2023, ended Pardubice 1–0 Hradec Králové — a Pardubice win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Pardubice trading profile (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Hradec Králové trading profile (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 44% versus Hradec Králové 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 44% | Hradec Králové 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.24 xG and Hradec Králové 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.627 / defence 0.947 | Hradec Králové attack 0.853 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.771 / away 1.196. Pardubice's attack rating of 0.627 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.24. Data: built from Pardubice's last 39 games and Hradec Králové's last 39.
Result probabilities: Pardubice 43% | Draw 29% | Hradec Králové 29%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 2.35 | Draw 3.48 | Hradec Králové 3.48. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pardubice as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hradec Králové (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pardubice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Pardubice's last 10 home games and Hradec Králové's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pardubice 30% (last 10 home games) | Hradec Králové 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 10 | Venue: CFIG Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 October 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 43% | Draw 29% | Hradec Králové 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Pardubice 1.24 / Hradec Králové 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.627 / def 0.947 | Hradec Králové attack 0.853 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.771 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Pardubice (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Hradec Králové xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pardubice vs Hradec Králové FAQs
What time does Pardubice vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Pardubice vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 1 October 2023 at CFIG Arena.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Hradec Králové?
Pardubice 1 - 1 Hradec Králové.
Where is Pardubice vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at CFIG Arena.
What competition is Pardubice vs Hradec Králové part of?
Pardubice vs Hradec Králové is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 10) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 43% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Pardubice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Pardubice and Hradec Králové will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Pardubice vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Pardubice's attacking strength (0.63x league average) is weighed against Hradec Králové's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Pardubice's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Pardubice's last 39 games and Hradec Králové's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pardubice Win
43%
2.35
29%
3.48
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.21
0.96
Hradec Králové xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
16%
6.17
8%
12.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 10.6 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.2 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pardubice vs Hradec Králové Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Pardubice and 0.96 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Pardubice have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 13W 6D 24L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Hradec Králové's form line: 16W 7D 20L from 43 games, 1.28 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pardubice on 1.05 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Pardubice have posted 1.19 PPG from their last 21 home games (7W 4D 10L).
On the road, Hradec Králové have gone 7W 5D 9L from their last 21 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Pardubice are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.19 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
Pardubice (Home) vs Hradec Králové (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pardubice
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Pardubice vs Hradec Králové Form FAQs
What form are Pardubice and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 13W 6D 24L in their last 43 games (1.05 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 16W 7D 20L in their last 43 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Hradec Králové away?
Hradec Králové's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.19 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from February 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 26 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Feb 2025, when Hradec Králové won Hradec Králové 3-0 Pardubice.
Pardubice's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pardubice
3
Draws
3
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Pardubice vs Hradec Králové H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Hradec Králové?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Pardubice have won 4, Hradec Králové have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Hradec Králové last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 July 2026: Hradec Králové 2-1 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Hradec Králové?
Pardubice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 38%, Hradec Králové 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Pardubice) and 57% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 48% of games; Hradec Králové in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pardubice vs Hradec Králové Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pardubice and Hradec Králové matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Pardubice's recent matches and 57% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Pardubice and Hradec Králové matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Pardubice's recent games and 57% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Hradec Králové matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Pardubice's recent matches and 71% of Hradec Králové's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pardubice and Hradec Králové share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice and Hradec Králové finished level at 1-1 at CFIG Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.24 xG and Hradec Králové 0.96 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.63 / defence 0.95 against Hradec Králové attack 0.85 / defence 1.12, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 43% | Draw 29% | Hradec Králové 29%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 44%, Hradec Králové 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pardubice 1.05 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.