Plzen 1-0 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plzen at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plzen vs Sparta Praha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 13 as Plzen welcome Sparta Praha to Doosan Aréna. Kick-off is set for Sunday 27 October 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Plzen — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plzen have posted 8W 2D 0L at Doosan Aréna — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Doosan Aréna. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Plzen are significantly better at Doosan Aréna than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Sparta Praha have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Praha's away record: 9W 0D 1L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.70 exceeds their overall 2.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.10 PPG (Plzen) versus 2.20 (Sparta Praha). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Plzen, 1 for Sparta Praha and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Plzen in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Sparta Praha in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 56% versus Sparta Praha 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 61% | Sparta Praha 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.39 xG and Sparta Praha 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.233 / defence 0.721 | Sparta Praha attack 1.301 / defence 0.819. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.273. Sparta Praha have an above-average attack strength of 1.301 — the away xG of 1.19 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Plzen's defence rating of 0.721 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Plzen games / 41 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 38% | Draw 32% | Sparta Praha 29%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Sparta Praha 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plzen are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.3 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Plzen 40% | Sparta Praha 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 38% | Draw 32% | Sparta Praha 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG Plzen 1.39 / Sparta Praha 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.233 / def 0.721 | Sparta Praha attack 1.301 / def 0.819 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Plzen (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Sparta Praha xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Plzen vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Sparta Praha?
Plzen 1 - 0 Sparta Praha.
Where is Plzen vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Sparta Praha part of?
Plzen vs Sparta Praha is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 38% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Plzen and Sparta Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Sparta Praha?
Record (4 meetings): Plzen 2W | Draws 1 | Sparta Praha 1W.
What form are Plzen and Sparta Praha in?
Plzen (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Sparta Praha (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Plzen's attack rating (1.23) and Sparta Praha's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Praha's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
38%
2.61
32%
3.10
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.58
1.19
Sparta Praha xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
12%
8.60
7%
13.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.5 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Plzen and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Plzen and 1.19 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Plzen's recent record stands at 28W 10D 8L from 46 games, a 2.04 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Praha, meanwhile, have gone 35W 7D 4L across 46 games — 2.43 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Plzen on 2.04 PPG, Sparta Praha on 2.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Plzen have managed 16W 4D 3L from 23 games — 2.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sparta Praha's away record stands at 18W 2D 3L across 23 trips, a 2.43 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Plzen are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 2.28 scored and 0.91 conceded. Plzen's scoring rate against Sparta Praha's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Praha in 61%.
Defensively: Sparta Praha in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
Sparta Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 28W 10D 8L in their last 46 games (2.04 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 35W 7D 4L in their last 46 (2.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sparta Praha's away record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.26 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 2.43 PPG.
Have Plzen or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Plzen and Sparta Praha runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 12 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Mar 2024, when Plzen won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plzen's record when hosting Sparta Praha specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Plzen
3
Draws
2
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Sparta Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 5, Sparta Praha have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Sparta Praha last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Sparta Praha 0-0 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Sparta Praha?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 52%, Sparta Praha 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Plzen and 65% for Sparta Praha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Sparta Praha in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Sparta Praha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Plzen's games and 61% of Sparta Praha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plzen vs Sparta Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Plzen's matches and 65% of Sparta Praha's.
Do Plzen and Sparta Praha tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Sparta Praha in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plzen edge out Sparta Praha 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Sparta Praha 1-0 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 13, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.39 xG and Sparta Praha 1.19 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sparta Praha landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.23 / defence 0.72 against Sparta Praha attack 1.30 / defence 0.82, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 38% | Draw 32% | Sparta Praha 29%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 61%, Sparta Praha 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plzen 2.04 PPG, Sparta Praha 2.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plzen win broke the near-deadlock. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.30 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.