Plzen 1-0 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Plzen host Sigma Olomouc at Doosan Arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 September 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Plzen have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Plzen have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plzen have posted 5W 2D 3L at Doosan Arena — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sigma Olomouc — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Sigma Olomouc have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sigma Olomouc's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Plzen at 1.80 PPG versus Sigma Olomouc's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Plzen hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 8 previous encounters compared to 2 for Sigma Olomouc, with 1 draws in between.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2025, ended 2–1 with Plzen winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Plzen and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Plzen in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Sigma Olomouc in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 57% versus Sigma Olomouc 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 52% | Sigma Olomouc 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.25 xG and Sigma Olomouc 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.101 / defence 0.963 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.769 / defence 0.818. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.197. Data: 37 Plzen games / 37 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 44% | Draw 29% | Sigma Olomouc 26%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Sigma Olomouc 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Plzen 70% | Sigma Olomouc 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Doosan Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Sep 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 44% | Draw 29% | Sigma Olomouc 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Plzen 1.25 / Sigma Olomouc 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.101 / def 0.963 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.769 / def 0.818 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Plzen (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Sigma Olomouc xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 September 2025 at Doosan Arena.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc?
Plzen 1 - 0 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Arena.
What competition is Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 44% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Plzen and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (8 meetings): Plzen 5W | Draws 1 | Sigma Olomouc 2W.
What form are Plzen and Sigma Olomouc in?
Plzen (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Plzen's attack rating (1.10) and Sigma Olomouc's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sigma Olomouc's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
44%
2.25
29%
3.40
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.14
0.89
Sigma Olomouc xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
18%
5.46
7%
13.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 10.5 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.1 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Plzen and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Plzen and 0.89 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Plzen come into this having played 42 games, going 26W 8D 8L for 2.05 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Plzen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sigma Olomouc sit at 1.38 PPG from 42 outings (16W 10D 16L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Plzen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Plzen's home form reads 14W 4D 3L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Sigma Olomouc have taken 1.19 points per game from 21 outings (6W 7D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Plzen are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.26 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Early Season
Sigma Olomouc
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 26W 8D 8L in their last 42 games (2.05 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 16W 10D 16L in their last 42 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Plzen's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.19 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Plzen or Sigma Olomouc been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sigma Olomouc in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Plzen go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Plzen's record when hosting Sigma Olomouc specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Plzen
1
Draws
2
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 7, Sigma Olomouc have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 1-2 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Sigma Olomouc?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 62%, Sigma Olomouc 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Plzen) and 38% (Sigma Olomouc).
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sigma Olomouc in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Sigma Olomouc?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Plzen's recent matches and 48% of Sigma Olomouc's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Plzen's recent games and 38% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plzen and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plzen edge out Sigma Olomouc 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Sigma Olomouc 1-0 at Doosan Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.25 xG and Sigma Olomouc 0.89 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sigma Olomouc landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.10 / defence 0.96 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.77 / defence 0.82, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 44% | Draw 29% | Sigma Olomouc 26%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 52%, Sigma Olomouc 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.