Mlada Boleslav 1-0 Teplice – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Mlada Boleslav at 37%, yet in-form Teplice provide a compelling counter-argument — this Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Teplice make the trip to Lokotrans Aréna to face Mlada Boleslav in Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 2. The match kicks off on Sunday 4 May 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Mlada Boleslav's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 0D 8L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Mlada Boleslav's home record at Lokotrans Aréna: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Mlada Boleslav are significantly better at Lokotrans Aréna than their overall form suggests.
Teplice have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Teplice have posted 0W 6D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Teplice arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mlada Boleslav lead 3W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2025, ended 2–1 with Mlada Boleslav winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (65 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Teplice — key trading statistics (65 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 55% versus Teplice 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 60% | Teplice 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.11 xG and Teplice 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 0.792 / defence 1.054 | Teplice attack 0.796 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.203. Mlada Boleslav's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 Mlada Boleslav games / 60 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 37% | Draw 30% | Teplice 32%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Teplice 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mlada Boleslav are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Teplice (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. This conflicts with form data: Mlada Boleslav 50% | Teplice 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 4 May 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 37% | Draw 30% | Teplice 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.11 / Teplice 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 0.792 / def 1.054 | Teplice attack 0.796 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Teplice xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 4 May 2025 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice?
Mlada Boleslav 1 - 0 Teplice.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice is a Relegation Round - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 37% chance of winning, Teplice a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Teplice?
Record (6 meetings): Mlada Boleslav 3W | Draws 1 | Teplice 2W.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Teplice in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Teplice (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Mlada Boleslav's attack rating (0.79) and Teplice's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.80x) against Mlada Boleslav's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
37%
2.67
30%
3.32
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
2.12
1.01
Teplice xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
14%
7.32
11%
9.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 12.1 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.01 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mlada Boleslav come into this having played 65 games, going 23W 14D 28L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, Teplice sit at 1.18 PPG from 65 outings (20W 17D 28L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Mlada Boleslav against 1.18 for Teplice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Mlada Boleslav's home form reads 13W 5D 13L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Teplice have taken 0.84 points per game from 31 outings (6W 8D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mlada Boleslav come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.06 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Current Season
Teplice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Teplice in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 23W 14D 28L in their last 65 games (1.28 PPG), while Teplice have gone 20W 17D 28L in their last 65 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Teplice away?
Mlada Boleslav's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.42 PPG; Teplice away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mlada Boleslav won 3-0 on 6 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mlada Boleslav have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Mlada Boleslav
2
Draws
3
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, Teplice have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 0-2 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Teplice?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Teplice see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 55%, Teplice 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Mlada Boleslav) and 48% (Teplice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 13% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mlada Boleslav have failed to score in 29% of games; Teplice in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Teplice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Mlada Boleslav's games and 58% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Mlada Boleslav's matches and 48% of Teplice's.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Teplice tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Teplice in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mlada Boleslav edge out Teplice 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat Teplice 1-0 at Lokotrans Aréna, Relegation Round - 2, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.11 xG and Teplice 1.01 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Teplice landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 0.79 / defence 1.05 against Teplice attack 0.80 / defence 1.03, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 37% | Draw 30% | Teplice 32%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 60%, Teplice 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Teplice's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.28 PPG, Teplice 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mlada Boleslav win broke the near-deadlock. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.