Karviná 1-1 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Karviná at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Karviná vs FK Jablonec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Karviná and FK Jablonec meet at Městský Stadión in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 August 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Karviná (all games): 1W 0D 3L across 4 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 0.75 PPG. Last five: W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.75 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Karviná have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FK Jablonec have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. FK Jablonec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FK Jablonec's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.75 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Karviná register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, FK Jablonec in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Karviná 0W, FK Jablonec 2W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2022, ended 0–2 with FK Jablonec winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Karviná — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Karviná 100% and FK Jablonec 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Karviná 100% | FK Jablonec 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.75 xG and FK Jablonec 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 1.028 / defence 1.181 | FK Jablonec attack 0.808 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.657 / away 1.281. Data: 4 Karviná games / 34 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karviná 50% | Draw 23% | FK Jablonec 27%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | FK Jablonec 3.70. Karviná hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Karviná at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Karviná if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Karviná 100% | FK Jablonec 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Aug 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 50% | Draw 23% | FK Jablonec 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Karviná 1.75 / FK Jablonec 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 1.028 / def 1.181 | FK Jablonec attack 0.808 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.657 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Karviná (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.22
FK Jablonec xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Karviná vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs FK Jablonec?
Karviná 1 - 1 FK Jablonec.
Where is Karviná vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs FK Jablonec part of?
Karviná vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 50% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 27% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Karviná the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Karviná and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and FK Jablonec?
Record (3 meetings): Karviná 0W | Draws 1 | FK Jablonec 2W.
What form are Karviná and FK Jablonec in?
Karviná (all comps): 1W-0D-3L in 4 | 0.75 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L. FK Jablonec (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Karviná's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against FK Jablonec's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (0.81x) against Karviná's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 4/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Karviná Win
50%
2.01
23%
4.26
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Karviná xG
Total xG
2.98
1.22
FK Jablonec xG
2.01
50%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
17%
5.78
Win to Nil
15%
6.81
5%
21.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.9 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Karviná and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Karviná and 1.22 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Karviná come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 0D 3L for 0.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Karviná, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FK Jablonec sit at 0.50 PPG from 4 outings (0W 2D 2L), a run that reads L-D-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for FK Jablonec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.75 PPG for Karviná against 0.50 for FK Jablonec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Karviná are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 0.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karviná have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Defensively: FK Jablonec in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Early Season
FK Jablonec
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 1W 0D 3L in their last 4 games (0.75 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 (0.50 PPG).
Have Karviná or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Karviná have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FK Jablonec have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 5-0 on 23 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Karviná have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Karviná
3
Draws
6
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Karviná have won 1, FK Jablonec have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when FK Jablonec 1-0 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and FK Jablonec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
FK Jablonec see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Karviná, 50% for FK Jablonec — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Karviná and 50% for FK Jablonec. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec in 50%; FK Jablonec in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play FK Jablonec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Karviná's games and 50% of FK Jablonec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Karviná vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Karviná's matches and 50% of FK Jablonec's.
Do Karviná and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Karviná have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Karviná and FK Jablonec share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karviná and FK Jablonec finished level at 1-1 at Městský Stadión, Regular Season - 5, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.75 xG and FK Jablonec 1.22 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 1.03 / defence 1.18 against FK Jablonec attack 0.81 / defence 1.03, drawn from 4/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 50% | Draw 23% | FK Jablonec 27%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 100%, FK Jablonec 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Karviná 0.75 PPG, FK Jablonec 0.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Karviná conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. FK Jablonec conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.