FK Jablonec 1-1 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slavia Praha at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FK Jablonec and Slavia Praha meet at Stadion Střelnice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 27 August 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. FK Jablonec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Střelnice, FK Jablonec have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — FK Jablonec are significantly better at Stadion Střelnice than their overall form suggests.
Slavia Praha (all games): 9W 0D 1L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 2.70 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Slavia Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Slavia Praha's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Slavia Praha are the stronger side — 1.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.70 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — FK Jablonec register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Slavia Praha in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: FK Jablonec 0W, Slavia Praha 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Jan 2023, ended 1–5 with Slavia Praha winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Slavia Praha — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 62% versus Slavia Praha 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 60% | Slavia Praha 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.18 xG and Slavia Praha 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.988 / defence 1.388 | Slavia Praha attack 1.188 / defence 0.732. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.165. Slavia Praha's defence strength of 0.732 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 35 FK Jablonec games / 35 Slavia Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 23% | Draw 22% | Slavia Praha 55%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 4.35 | Draw 4.55 | Slavia Praha 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slavia Praha are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 70% | Slavia Praha 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Aug 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 23% | Draw 22% | Slavia Praha 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 59% | xG FK Jablonec 1.18 / Slavia Praha 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 0.988 / def 1.388 | Slavia Praha attack 1.188 / def 0.732 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.92
Slavia Praha xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 27 August 2023 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha?
FK Jablonec 1 - 1 Slavia Praha.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha part of?
FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 23% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 55% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both FK Jablonec and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Slavia Praha?
Record (2 meetings): FK Jablonec 0W | Draws 0 | Slavia Praha 2W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Slavia Praha in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Slavia Praha (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FK Jablonec's attack at 0.99x the league average against Slavia Praha's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Slavia Praha's attack (1.19x) against FK Jablonec's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.92.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
23%
4.30
22%
4.51
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
3.10
1.92
Slavia Praha xG
4.30
23%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
15%
6.83
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
3%
29.38
17%
5.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 8.6 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.92 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FK Jablonec come into this having played 40 games, going 10W 13D 17L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for FK Jablonec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Slavia Praha sit at 2.33 PPG from 40 outings (29W 6D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Slavia Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Slavia Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.25 PPG clear of FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
FK Jablonec's home form reads 6W 7D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Slavia Praha have taken 1.68 points per game from 19 outings (9W 5D 5L). That's a step down from their 2.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slavia Praha's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.68 scored and 0.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FK Jablonec have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Early Season
Slavia Praha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 10W 13D 17L in their last 40 games (1.08 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 29W 6D 5L in their last 40 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Slavia Praha away?
Slavia Praha's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.32 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 1.68 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Slavia Praha have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 5-1 on 29 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Slavia Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
FK Jablonec
2
Draws
7
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Slavia Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 1, Slavia Praha have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Slavia Praha 5-1 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 63%, Slavia Praha 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (FK Jablonec) and 53% (Slavia Praha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Slavia Praha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of FK Jablonec's games and 53% of Slavia Praha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FK Jablonec vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of FK Jablonec's matches and 53% of Slavia Praha's.
Do FK Jablonec and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FK Jablonec and Slavia Praha share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec and Slavia Praha finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 6, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.18 xG and Slavia Praha 1.92 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Slavia Praha landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 0.99 / defence 1.39 against Slavia Praha attack 1.19 / defence 0.73, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 23% | Draw 22% | Slavia Praha 55%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 60%, Slavia Praha 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.