Hradec Králové 0-0 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Hradec Králové (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Hradec Králové face Teplice.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hradec Králové host Teplice at Malsovicka arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 October 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové at Malsovicka arena this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Teplice — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Hradec Králové have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
Hradec Králové hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 6 wins from 8 previous encounters compared to 2 for Teplice, with 0 draws in between.
The last 8 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.6 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2025, ended 0–1 with Teplice winning.
The historical record gives Hradec Králové a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hradec Králové trading profile (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Teplice trading profile (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 44% versus Teplice 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 44% | Teplice 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.55 xG and Teplice 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 1.080 / defence 1.072 | Teplice attack 0.984 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.189 / away 1.150. Teplice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.210 — this is suppressing Hradec Králové's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Hradec Králové games / 42 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 42% | Draw 32% | Teplice 26%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Teplice 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hradec Králové as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 50% | Teplice 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Malsovicka arena • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Oct 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 42% | Draw 32% | Teplice 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 59% | xG Hradec Králové 1.55 / Teplice 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 1.080 / def 1.072 | Teplice attack 0.984 / def 1.210 | league avg home 1.189 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Teplice xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Teplice kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Teplice kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 25 October 2025 at Malsovicka arena.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Teplice?
Hradec Králové 0 - 0 Teplice.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Malsovicka arena.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Teplice part of?
Hradec Králové vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 42% chance of winning, Teplice a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Hradec Králové and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Teplice?
Record (8 meetings): Hradec Králové 6W | Draws 0 | Teplice 2W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Teplice in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Teplice (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hradec Králové's attack at 1.08x the league average against Teplice's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Teplice's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
42%
2.39
32%
3.14
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.77
1.21
Teplice xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
12%
8.06
6%
17.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.8 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.21 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hradec Králové's recent record stands at 18W 11D 17L from 46 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Teplice, meanwhile, have gone 14W 12D 20L across 46 games — 1.17 PPG, with D-D-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.41 PPG, Teplice on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hradec Králové have managed 10W 6D 6L from 22 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Teplice's away record stands at 4W 8D 10L across 22 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.17 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Teplice in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 18W 11D 17L in their last 46 games (1.41 PPG), while Teplice have gone 14W 12D 20L in their last 46 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Teplice away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.64 PPG; Teplice away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Teplice in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hradec Králové and Teplice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2022, when Hradec Králové won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Teplice specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Hradec Králové
1
Draws
2
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 7, Teplice have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Teplice 0-1 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Teplice?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 46%, Teplice 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Hradec Králové) and 46% (Teplice).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Teplice in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Teplice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 59% of Teplice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 46% of Teplice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Teplice tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Teplice in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Hradec Králové's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové and Teplice finished level at 0-0 at Malsovicka arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.55 xG and Teplice 1.21 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Hradec Králové fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Teplice landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 1.08 / defence 1.07 against Teplice attack 0.98 / defence 1.21, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 42% | Draw 32% | Teplice 26%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 44%, Teplice 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Teplice's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.41 PPG, Teplice 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.