Hradec Králové 1-1 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 48%, yet in-form FK Jablonec provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hradec Králové host FK Jablonec at Malšovická Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 March 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové at Malšovická Aréna this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, FK Jablonec have recorded 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. FK Jablonec are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Hradec Králové have won 1, FK Jablonec 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 0–2 with FK Jablonec winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (57 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
FK Jablonec in-play and half-time data (57 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 42% versus FK Jablonec 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 40% | FK Jablonec 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.63 xG and FK Jablonec 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 1.034 / defence 0.890 | FK Jablonec attack 1.084 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.227. Data: 52 Hradec Králové games / 53 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 48% | Draw 25% | FK Jablonec 28%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | FK Jablonec 3.57. Hradec Králové hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hradec Králové at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FK Jablonec (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Hradec Králové 40% | FK Jablonec 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Malšovická Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Mar 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 48% | Draw 25% | FK Jablonec 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Hradec Králové 1.63 / FK Jablonec 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 1.034 / def 0.890 | FK Jablonec attack 1.084 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.18
FK Jablonec xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Malšovická Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec?
Hradec Králové 1 - 1 FK Jablonec.
Where is Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Malšovická Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec part of?
Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 48% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec?
Record (6 meetings): Hradec Králové 1W | Draws 2 | FK Jablonec 3W.
What form are Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. FK Jablonec (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hradec Králové's attack at 1.03x the league average against FK Jablonec's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FK Jablonec's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
48%
2.09
25%
4.08
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.81
1.18
FK Jablonec xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
20%
5.10
Win to Nil
15%
6.84
5%
18.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.6 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.18 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hradec Králové's recent record stands at 21W 15D 21L from 57 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FK Jablonec, meanwhile, have gone 21W 17D 19L across 57 games — 1.40 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.37 PPG, FK Jablonec on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hradec Králové have managed 13W 7D 7L from 27 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FK Jablonec's away record stands at 6W 9D 12L across 27 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.53 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 21W 15D 21L in their last 57 games (1.37 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 21W 17D 19L in their last 57 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or FK Jablonec away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.70 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Sep 2022, when FK Jablonec won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting FK Jablonec specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Hradec Králové
4
Draws
4
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 2, FK Jablonec have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when FK Jablonec 1-1 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 48%, FK Jablonec 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Hradec Králové) and 41% (FK Jablonec).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; FK Jablonec in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 44% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 41% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Malšovická Aréna, Regular Season - 24, as Hradec Králové and FK Jablonec drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.63 xG and FK Jablonec 1.18 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 1.03 / defence 0.89 against FK Jablonec attack 1.08 / defence 1.03, drawn from 52/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 48% | Draw 25% | FK Jablonec 28%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 40%, FK Jablonec 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (57 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (57 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.37 PPG, FK Jablonec 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.