Hradec Králové 2-2 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hradec Králové host Bohemians 1905 at Malšovická Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 February 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové at Malšovická Aréna this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Bohemians 1905 have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hradec Králové 1.40 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Hradec Králové have won 1, Bohemians 1905 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2024, ended 3–0 with Hradec Králové winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hradec Králové trading profile (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Bohemians 1905 trading profile (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 41% versus Bohemians 1905 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 39% | Bohemians 1905 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.06 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.947 / defence 0.813 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.927 / defence 0.730. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.174. Bohemians 1905's defence strength of 0.730 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 51 Hradec Králové games / 51 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 39% | Draw 31% | Bohemians 1905 30%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Bohemians 1905 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hradec Králové are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.95 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 30% | Bohemians 1905 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Malšovická Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Feb 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 39% | Draw 31% | Bohemians 1905 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Hradec Králové 1.06 / Bohemians 1905 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.947 / def 0.813 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.927 / def 0.730 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Bohemians 1905 xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 16 February 2025 at Malšovická Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905?
Hradec Králové 2 - 2 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Malšovická Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 39% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905?
Record (4 meetings): Hradec Králové 1W | Draws 1 | Bohemians 1905 2W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hradec Králové's attack at 0.95x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians 1905's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
39%
2.56
31%
3.21
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
1.95
0.88
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
16%
6.19
10%
9.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 12.6 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 0.88 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hradec Králové's recent record stands at 21W 14D 21L from 56 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bohemians 1905, meanwhile, have gone 16W 19D 21L across 56 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hradec Králové on 1.38 PPG, Bohemians 1905 on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hradec Králové have managed 14W 6D 7L from 27 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Hradec Králové are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Bohemians 1905's away record stands at 8W 9D 10L across 27 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.07 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 21W 14D 21L in their last 56 games (1.38 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 16W 19D 21L in their last 56 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.78 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Dec 2024, when Hradec Králové won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Bohemians 1905 specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
3
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 4, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Bohemians 1905 0-0 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 48%, Bohemians 1905 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Hradec Králové) and 48% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 56% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 48% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Malšovická Aréna, Regular Season - 22, as Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.06 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.88 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Hradec Králové beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bohemians 1905 outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.95 / defence 0.81 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.93 / defence 0.73, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 39% | Draw 31% | Bohemians 1905 30%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 39%, Bohemians 1905 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hradec Králové 1.38 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.