FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Strelnice plays host to FK Jablonec versus Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 12 December 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FK Jablonec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Strelnice, FK Jablonec have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bohemians 1905 have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for FK Jablonec, 1.50 for Bohemians 1905 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: FK Jablonec 3W, Bohemians 1905 5W, 2D.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 42% versus Bohemians 1905 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 42% | Bohemians 1905 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.52 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.002 / defence 0.858 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.946 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.288. Data: 35 FK Jablonec games / 36 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 48% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 1905 25%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Bohemians 1905 4.00. FK Jablonec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 70% | Bohemians 1905 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion Strelnice • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Dec 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 48% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 1905 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG FK Jablonec 1.52 / Bohemians 1905 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.002 / def 0.858 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.946 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Bohemians 1905 xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 12 December 2026 at Stadion Strelnice.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Strelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 48% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905?
Record (10 meetings): FK Jablonec 3W | Draws 2 | Bohemians 1905 5W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FK Jablonec's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Bohemians 1905's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (0.95x) against FK Jablonec's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 35/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
48%
2.09
27%
3.73
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.57
1.04
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
17%
5.95
6%
17.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.2 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.04 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FK Jablonec come into this having played 38 games, going 18W 6D 14L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for FK Jablonec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 1.18 PPG from 38 outings (12W 9D 17L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FK Jablonec carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
FK Jablonec's home form reads 9W 5D 4L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 1.22 points per game from 18 outings (6W 4D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 0.92 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Early Season
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 18W 6D 14L in their last 38 games (1.58 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 12W 9D 17L in their last 38 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.78 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.22 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 2 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won 0-3 on 31 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FK Jablonec
2
Draws
5
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 3, Bohemians 1905 have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 2 September 2026, when Bohemians 1905 1-1 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 61%, Bohemians 1905 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FK Jablonec) and 44% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 44% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FK Jablonec vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 44% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.