České Budějovice 0-2 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Hradec Králové (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as České Budějovice face Hradec Králové.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
České Budějovice host Hradec Králové at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, České Budějovice have gone 0W 1D 9L from 10 outings — a 0.10 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, České Budějovice have posted 2W 3D 5L at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.10 — České Budějovice are significantly better at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov than their overall form suggests.
Hradec Králové — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Hradec Králové — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Hradec Králové have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 6 encounters against České Budějovice's 0 victories.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2023, ended 0–2 with Hradec Králové winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Hradec Králové have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
České Budějovice in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 54% versus Hradec Králové 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 63% | Hradec Králové 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 0.76 xG and Hradec Králové 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.597 / defence 1.219 | Hradec Králové attack 0.649 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.263. České Budějovice's attack strength of 0.597 is below the league average — the 0.76 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 41 České Budějovice games / 41 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 25% | Draw 37% | Hradec Králové 38%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 4.00 | Draw 2.70 | Hradec Králové 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hradec Králové at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.76 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: České Budějovice 50% | Hradec Králové 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 25% | Draw 37% | Hradec Králové 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 36% | xG České Budějovice 0.76 / Hradec Králové 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 0.597 / def 1.219 | Hradec Králové attack 0.649 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Hradec Králové xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové kick off?
České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové?
České Budějovice 0 - 2 Hradec Králové.
Where is České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové part of?
České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 25% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 38% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both České Budějovice and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Hradec Králové?
Record (6 meetings): České Budějovice 0W | Draws 1 | Hradec Králové 5W.
What form are České Budějovice and Hradec Králové in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Hradec Králové (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates České Budějovice's attack at 0.60x the league average against Hradec Králové's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 0.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus České Budějovice's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.5%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
25%
4.02
37%
2.68
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.2%
Away win
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
1.76
1.00
Hradec Králové xG
4.02
25%
Home win
2.68
37%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
47%
2.14
Win to Nil
9%
10.92
18%
5.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.2 | 17.2 | 8.6 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.9%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.00 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
České Budějovice's recent record stands at 8W 10D 28L from 46 games, a 0.74 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hradec Králové, meanwhile, have gone 17W 12D 17L across 46 games — 1.37 PPG, with L-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hradec Králové by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over České Budějovice heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, České Budějovice have managed 8W 4D 11L from 23 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.74 PPG overall — České Budějovice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Hradec Králové's away record stands at 4W 7D 12L across 23 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.37 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hradec Králové's season.
Goals in Recent Form
České Budějovice are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 2.04 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.11 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Hradec Králové in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 8W 10D 28L in their last 46 games (0.74 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 17W 12D 17L in their last 46 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Hradec Králové away?
České Budějovice's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 1.22 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 0.83 PPG.
Have České Budějovice or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
České Budějovice have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Hradec Králové go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Aug 2023, when Hradec Králové won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
České Budějovice's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
České Budějovice
1
Draws
7
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Hradec Králové?
From 8 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 0, Hradec Králové have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2025, when Hradec Králové 1-0 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Hradec Králové?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Hradec Králové see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 48%, Hradec Králové 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (České Budějovice) and 30% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové in 30%; České Budějovice have failed to score in 39% of games; Hradec Králové in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of České Budějovice's recent matches and 39% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is České Budějovice vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of České Budějovice's recent games and 30% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do České Budějovice and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hradec Králové cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over České Budějovice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat České Budějovice 0-2 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 13, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 0.76 xG and Hradec Králové 1.00 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Hradec Králové outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 0.60 / defence 1.22 against Hradec Králové attack 0.65 / defence 0.93, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 25% | Draw 37% | Hradec Králové 38%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 63%, Hradec Králové 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Hradec Králové arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.74. The form guide was vindicated by the result. České Budějovice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.65 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.