Dukla Praha 1-1 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Teplice at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dukla Praha vs Teplice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Teplice travel to Stadion Juliska to take on Dukla Praha. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 March 2025, 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Dukla Praha have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dukla Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dukla Praha at Stadion Juliska this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Dukla Praha are significantly better at Stadion Juliska than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Teplice stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Teplice's 1.20 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Dukla Praha's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Dukla Praha, 0 for Teplice and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Dukla Praha in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Teplice in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dukla Praha 52% versus Teplice 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dukla Praha 52% | Teplice 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dukla Praha 1.16 xG and Teplice 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dukla Praha attack 0.767 / defence 1.358 | Teplice attack 0.807 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.204. Dukla Praha's attack strength of 0.767 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 23 Dukla Praha games / 54 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dukla Praha 32% | Draw 28% | Teplice 40%. Fair-value odds: Dukla Praha 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Teplice 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Teplice at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dukla Praha 60% | Teplice 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dukla Praha vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadion Juliska • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Mar 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dukla Praha 32% | Draw 28% | Teplice 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Dukla Praha 1.16 / Teplice 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Dukla Praha attack 0.767 / def 1.358 | Teplice attack 0.807 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Teplice (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Dukla Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Teplice xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dukla Praha vs Teplice kick off?
Dukla Praha vs Teplice kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 8 March 2025 at Stadion Juliska.
What was the final score in Dukla Praha vs Teplice?
Dukla Praha 1 - 1 Teplice.
Where is Dukla Praha vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Juliska.
What competition is Dukla Praha vs Teplice part of?
Dukla Praha vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Dukla Praha vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Dukla Praha a 32% chance of winning, Teplice a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dukla Praha vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Dukla Praha and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Dukla Praha vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and Teplice?
Record (1 meetings): Dukla Praha 0W | Draws 1 | Teplice 0W.
What form are Dukla Praha and Teplice in?
Dukla Praha (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Teplice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Dukla Praha's attack at 0.77x the league average against Teplice's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Teplice's attack versus Dukla Praha's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
32%
3.12
28%
3.52
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Dukla Praha xG
Total xG
2.48
1.32
Teplice xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
9%
11.68
12%
8.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.0 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dukla Praha vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Dukla Praha and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Dukla Praha and 1.32 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Dukla Praha vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 23 outings, Dukla Praha have picked up 0.65 PPG on a 3W 6D 14L record — L-D-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Dukla Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Teplice's form line: 7W 4D 12L from 23 games, 1.09 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-W. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Teplice are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dukla Praha.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Dukla Praha have posted 0.91 PPG from 11 outings (3W 1D 7L).
On the road, Teplice have gone 2W 3D 6L from 11 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Dukla Praha are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.17 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Teplice in 61%.
Last 23 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dukla Praha
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dukla Praha and Teplice in coming into this match?
Dukla Praha have gone 3W 6D 14L in their last 23 games (0.65 PPG), while Teplice have gone 7W 4D 12L in their last 23 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dukla Praha at home or Teplice away?
Dukla Praha's home record (0.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dukla Praha at home: 0.91 PPG; Teplice away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dukla Praha and Teplice runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Dukla Praha's record when hosting Teplice specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Dukla Praha
4
Draws
2
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and Teplice?
From 6 meetings on record, Dukla Praha have won 0, Teplice have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Dukla Praha and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Teplice 2-0 Dukla Praha.
Who has won more matches between Dukla Praha and Teplice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Teplice see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dukla Praha 64%, Teplice 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Dukla Praha) and 46% (Teplice).
On the defensive side: Teplice in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dukla Praha home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dukla Praha play Teplice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Dukla Praha's games and 54% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dukla Praha vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Dukla Praha's recent games and 46% of Teplice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dukla Praha and Teplice tend to score early?
Dukla Praha have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Teplice in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dukla Praha and Teplice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dukla Praha and Teplice finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Juliska, Regular Season - 25, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 1.16 xG and Teplice 1.32 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.77 / defence 1.36 against Teplice attack 0.81 / defence 1.02, drawn from 23/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 32% | Draw 28% | Teplice 40%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 52%, Teplice 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dukla Praha's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Teplice's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Teplice arrived the stronger side — 1.09 PPG against 0.65. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.