Chrudim 1-0 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chrudim at 48%, yet in-form Pardubice provide a compelling counter-argument — this Chrudim vs Pardubice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Chrudim and Pardubice meet at Stadion Za Vodojemem in Czech Liga, Relegation Round. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 June 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Chrudim's overall Czech Liga record this term: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Chrudim have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pardubice (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Pardubice's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Pardubice arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — Chrudim have seen both teams score in just 0% of their games, Pardubice in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Chrudim 0W, Pardubice 1W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 May 2025, ended 0–2 with Pardubice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chrudim 1.55 xG and Pardubice 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chrudim attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Pardubice attack 0.785 / defence 1.344. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.203. Pardubice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.344 — this is suppressing Chrudim's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 0 Chrudim games / 60 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chrudim 48% | Draw 26% | Pardubice 26%. Fair-value odds: Chrudim 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Pardubice 3.85. Chrudim hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Chrudim as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Pardubice (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chrudim if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chrudim vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round | Venue: Stadion Za Vodojemem • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Jun 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chrudim 48% | Draw 26% | Pardubice 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Chrudim 1.55 / Pardubice 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Chrudim attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Pardubice attack 0.785 / def 1.344 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Chrudim (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Chrudim xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Pardubice xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chrudim vs Pardubice kick off?
Chrudim vs Pardubice kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 1 June 2025 at Stadion Za Vodojemem.
What was the final score in Chrudim vs Pardubice?
Chrudim 1 - 0 Pardubice.
Where is Chrudim vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Za Vodojemem.
What competition is Chrudim vs Pardubice part of?
Chrudim vs Pardubice is a Relegation Round fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Chrudim vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Chrudim a 48% chance of winning, Pardubice a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Chrudim the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chrudim vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Chrudim and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Chrudim vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chrudim and Pardubice?
Record (1 meetings): Chrudim 0W | Draws 0 | Pardubice 1W.
What form are Chrudim and Pardubice in?
Chrudim (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L. Pardubice (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Chrudim's attack at 0.85x the league average against Pardubice's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pardubice's attack (0.79x) against Chrudim's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 0/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chrudim Win
48%
2.08
26%
3.91
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Chrudim xG
Total xG
2.64
1.08
Pardubice xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
16%
6.16
6%
17.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.0 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chrudim vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Chrudim and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Chrudim and 1.08 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Chrudim vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 1 outings, Chrudim have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Chrudim, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pardubice's form line: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W. It's still early in the season for Pardubice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Pardubice are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chrudim.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chrudim are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 2.00 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chrudim have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Pardubice in 0%.
Defensively: Pardubice in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chrudim
Early Season
Pardubice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chrudim and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Chrudim have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Chrudim or Pardubice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chrudim have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Pardubice in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since May 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 June 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Chrudim
0
Draws
1
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chrudim and Pardubice?
From 2 meetings on record, Chrudim have won 1, Pardubice have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chrudim and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 1 June 2025, when Chrudim 1-0 Pardubice.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chrudim home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chrudim play Pardubice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Chrudim's recent matches and 0% of Pardubice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chrudim vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Chrudim's recent games and 0% of Pardubice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chrudim and Pardubice tend to score early?
Chrudim have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chrudim edge out Pardubice 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chrudim beat Pardubice 1-0 at Stadion Za Vodojemem, Relegation Round, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chrudim 1.55 xG and Pardubice 1.08 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Pardubice landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chrudim attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Pardubice attack 0.79 / defence 1.34, drawn from 0/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chrudim 48% | Draw 26% | Pardubice 26%, with Chrudim to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chrudim 0%, Pardubice 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Pardubice arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Chrudim winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Chrudim scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Pardubice managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.