Bohemians 1905 0-0 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Bohemians 1905 take on Sparta Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha meet at Dolicek Stadium in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bohemians 1905 have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dolicek Stadium, Bohemians 1905 have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dolicek Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Bohemians 1905 are significantly better at Dolicek Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Sparta Praha's overall Czech Liga record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sparta Praha have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Bohemians 1905, 1.90 for Sparta Praha — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Bohemians 1905 have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Sparta Praha in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
Sparta Praha hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 7 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 2–0 with Bohemians 1905 winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sparta Praha have won 7 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sparta Praha — key trading statistics (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 42% versus Sparta Praha 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 42% | Sparta Praha 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 0.99 xG and Sparta Praha 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.853 / defence 0.658 | Sparta Praha attack 1.057 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.258. Bohemians 1905's defence rating of 0.658 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Bohemians 1905 games / 42 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 34% | Draw 37% | Sparta Praha 28%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.94 | Draw 2.70 | Sparta Praha 3.57. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.86 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 30% | Sparta Praha 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Dolicek Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 34% | Draw 37% | Sparta Praha 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 39% | xG Bohemians 1905 0.99 / Sparta Praha 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.853 / def 0.658 | Sparta Praha attack 1.057 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Sparta Praha xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at Dolicek Stadium.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha?
Bohemians 1905 0 - 0 Sparta Praha.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Dolicek Stadium.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 34% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 28% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha?
Record (9 meetings): Bohemians 1905 1W | Draws 1 | Sparta Praha 7W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Sparta Praha (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bohemians 1905's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Sparta Praha's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. Flip it around — Sparta Praha's attack (1.06x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (0.66x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.91
37%
2.69
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
1.86
0.88
Sparta Praha xG
2.91
34%
Home win
2.69
37%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
14%
6.97
11%
9.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 13.6 | 6.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 0.88 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 43 outings, Bohemians 1905 have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 15W 10D 18L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Praha's form line: 27W 7D 9L from 43 games, 2.05 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sparta Praha are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bohemians 1905.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bohemians 1905 have posted 1.30 PPG from 20 outings (7W 5D 8L).
On the road, Sparta Praha have gone 10W 3D 7L from 20 away games — 1.65 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 1.95 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Sparta Praha in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Sparta Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 15W 10D 18L in their last 43 games (1.28 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 27W 7D 9L in their last 43 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sparta Praha's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.30 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Bohemians 1905 or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 1 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 2-6 on 12 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sparta Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Bohemians 1905
2
Draws
7
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 1, Sparta Praha have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2026, when Bohemians 1905 0-0 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians 1905 see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 35% (Bohemians 1905) and 30% (Sparta Praha) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Bohemians 1905) and 55% (Sparta Praha).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Sparta Praha in 60%; Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Sparta Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 30% of Sparta Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Sparta Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 55% of Sparta Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Sparta Praha in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bohemians 1905's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 and Sparta Praha finished level at 0-0 at Dolicek Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 0.99 xG and Sparta Praha 0.88 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Sparta Praha landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.85 / defence 0.66 against Sparta Praha attack 1.06 / defence 0.85, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 34% | Draw 37% | Sparta Praha 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 42%, Sparta Praha 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.