Bohemians 1905 2-0 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bohemians 1905 (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bohemians 1905 face Slovácko.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bohemians 1905 host Slovácko at Dolicek Stadium in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 September 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bohemians 1905 — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bohemians 1905 at Dolicek Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovácko have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Slovácko have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Slovácko have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Bohemians 1905 have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Bohemians 1905 have won 4, Slovácko 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 2–1 with Bohemians 1905 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bohemians 1905 trading profile (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Slovácko trading profile (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 42% versus Slovácko 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 42% | Slovácko 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.33 xG and Slovácko 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.826 / defence 0.863 | Slovácko attack 0.848 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.267. Data: 36 Bohemians 1905 games / 37 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 45% | Draw 31% | Slovácko 25%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | Slovácko 4.00. Bohemians 1905 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 1905 40% | Slovácko 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Dolicek Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 45% | Draw 31% | Slovácko 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.33 / Slovácko 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.826 / def 0.863 | Slovácko attack 0.848 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Slovácko xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 12 September 2026 at Dolicek Stadium.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko?
Bohemians 1905 2 - 0 Slovácko.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Dolicek Stadium.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 45% chance of winning, Slovácko a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko?
Record (9 meetings): Bohemians 1905 4W | Draws 3 | Slovácko 2W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Slovácko (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bohemians 1905's attack rating (0.83) and Slovácko's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Slovácko's attack versus Bohemians 1905's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
45%
2.24
31%
3.28
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.26
0.93
Slovácko xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
18%
5.66
7%
15.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.9 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 0.93 for Slovácko, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Bohemians 1905 have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 12W 9D 17L record — D-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Slovácko's form line: 8W 10D 20L from 38 games, 0.89 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Slovácko, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bohemians 1905 on 1.18 PPG, Slovácko on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bohemians 1905 have posted 1.11 PPG from 18 outings (5W 5D 8L).
On the road, Slovácko have gone 3W 4D 11L from 18 away games — 0.72 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
Slovácko
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 12W 9D 17L in their last 38 games (1.18 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 8W 10D 20L in their last 38 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Slovácko away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.11 PPG; Slovácko away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bohemians 1905 go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Dec 2023, when Slovácko won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians 1905's record when hosting Slovácko specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bohemians 1905
3
Draws
2
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 5, Slovácko have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Bohemians 1905 2-0 Slovácko.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bohemians 1905 see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 39%, Slovácko 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Bohemians 1905) and 44% (Slovácko).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 39% of games; Slovácko in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Slovácko?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 44% of Slovácko's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 44% of Slovácko's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Slovácko in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians 1905 cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Slovácko.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Slovácko 2-0 at Dolicek Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.33 xG and Slovácko 0.93 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Slovácko landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.83 / defence 0.86 against Slovácko attack 0.85 / defence 1.11, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 45% | Draw 31% | Slovácko 25%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 42%, Slovácko 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Slovácko's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.18 PPG, Slovácko 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Slovácko (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.