Bohemians 1905 1-0 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bohemians 1905 host Slovácko at Dolicek in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 September 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Bohemians 1905 — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bohemians 1905 at Dolicek this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovácko have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Slovácko have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Slovácko have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bohemians 1905 at 1.30 PPG versus Slovácko's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Bohemians 1905 have won 2, Slovácko 3, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2024, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Bohemians 1905 trading profile (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Slovácko trading profile (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 45% versus Slovácko 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 48% | Slovácko 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.16 xG and Slovácko 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.790 / defence 0.962 | Slovácko attack 0.810 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.243. Bohemians 1905's attack strength of 0.790 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 36 Bohemians 1905 games / 37 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 40% | Draw 30% | Slovácko 30%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Slovácko 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 30% | Slovácko 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Dolicek • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Sep 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 40% | Draw 30% | Slovácko 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.16 / Slovácko 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.790 / def 0.962 | Slovácko attack 0.810 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Slovácko xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 14 September 2025 at Dolicek.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko?
Bohemians 1905 1 - 0 Slovácko.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Dolicek.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 40% chance of winning, Slovácko a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko?
Record (8 meetings): Bohemians 1905 2W | Draws 3 | Slovácko 3W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Slovácko (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bohemians 1905's attack rating (0.79) and Slovácko's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Slovácko's attack versus Bohemians 1905's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
40%
2.51
30%
3.31
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.13
0.97
Slovácko xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
15%
6.60
9%
10.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 11.5 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 0.97 for Slovácko, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Bohemians 1905 have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 12W 11D 17L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Slovácko's form line: 10W 12D 18L from 40 games, 1.05 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Slovácko, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bohemians 1905 on 1.18 PPG, Slovácko on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bohemians 1905 have posted 1.11 PPG from 19 outings (5W 6D 8L).
On the road, Slovácko have gone 3W 5D 11L from 19 away games — 0.74 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 0.88 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
Slovácko
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 12W 11D 17L in their last 40 games (1.18 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 10W 12D 18L in their last 40 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Slovácko away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.11 PPG; Slovácko away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bohemians 1905 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Dec 2023, when Slovácko won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians 1905's record when hosting Slovácko specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bohemians 1905
3
Draws
3
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 4, Slovácko have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Slovácko 1-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 47%, Slovácko 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Bohemians 1905) and 47% (Slovácko).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 37% of games; Slovácko in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Slovácko?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 47% of Slovácko's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 47% of Slovácko's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Slovácko in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bohemians 1905 edge out Slovácko 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Slovácko 1-0 at Dolicek, Regular Season - 8, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.16 xG and Slovácko 0.97 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Slovácko landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.79 / defence 0.96 against Slovácko attack 0.81 / defence 1.06, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 40% | Draw 30% | Slovácko 30%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 48%, Slovácko 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Slovácko's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.18 PPG, Slovácko 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Slovácko (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.