Bohemians 1905 0-1 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sigma Olomouc make the trip to Stadion Ďolíček to face Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Sunday 9 March 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bohemians 1905 have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905 at Stadion Ďolíček this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Sigma Olomouc (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sigma Olomouc away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Bohemians 1905, 1.60 for Sigma Olomouc — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Bohemians 1905 2W, Sigma Olomouc 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2024, ended 3–1 with Bohemians 1905 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Bohemians 1905 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Sigma Olomouc goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bohemians 1905 54% and Sigma Olomouc 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 50% | Sigma Olomouc 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.17 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.836 / defence 1.133 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.135 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.175. Data: 54 Bohemians 1905 games / 54 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 28% | Draw 28% | Sigma Olomouc 44%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Sigma Olomouc 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sigma Olomouc at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 50% | Sigma Olomouc 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Mar 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 28% | Draw 28% | Sigma Olomouc 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.17 / Sigma Olomouc 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.836 / def 1.133 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.135 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.492 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Sigma Olomouc xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 9 March 2025 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc?
Bohemians 1905 0 - 1 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 28% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (4 meetings): Bohemians 1905 2W | Draws 1 | Sigma Olomouc 1W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bohemians 1905's attack at 0.84x the league average against Sigma Olomouc's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (1.14x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
28%
3.56
28%
3.54
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.68
1.51
Sigma Olomouc xG
3.56
28%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
22%
4.53
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
6%
16.15
14%
7.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 10.3 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.51 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bohemians 1905 come into this having played 56 games, going 14W 21D 21L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-L. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sigma Olomouc sit at 1.29 PPG from 56 outings (20W 12D 24L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 1.29 for Sigma Olomouc. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Bohemians 1905's home form reads 8W 11D 9L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Sigma Olomouc have taken 1.07 points per game from 28 outings (8W 6D 14L).
Attack vs Defence
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.43 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sigma Olomouc in 68%.
Last 56 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 14W 21D 21L in their last 56 games (1.12 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 20W 12D 24L in their last 56 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.25 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sigma Olomouc won 3-0 on 5 Sep 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians 1905
2
Draws
5
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, Sigma Olomouc have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 3-0 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 50%, Sigma Olomouc 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bohemians 1905) and 54% (Sigma Olomouc).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Sigma Olomouc?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Bohemians 1905's games and 68% of Sigma Olomouc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 54% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sigma Olomouc edge out Bohemians 1905 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Bohemians 1905 0-1 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 25, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.17 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.51 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bohemians 1905 fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.84 / defence 1.13 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.14 / defence 0.94, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 28% | Draw 28% | Sigma Olomouc 44%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 50%, Sigma Olomouc 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.12 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.