Bohemians 1905 1-0 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hradec Králové at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Middle Play-offs - Final as Bohemians 1905 welcome Hradec Králové to Stadion Ďolíček. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 May 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Bohemians 1905 — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bohemians 1905 have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stadion Ďolíček — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Bohemians 1905 are significantly better at Stadion Ďolíček than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Hradec Králové have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Hradec Králové have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Hradec Králové — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Bohemians 1905 have won 2, Hradec Králové 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Feb 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Bohemians 1905 trading profile (67 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Hradec Králové trading profile (67 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 52% versus Hradec Králové 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 48% | Hradec Králové 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.14 xG and Hradec Králové 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.856 / defence 1.072 | Hradec Králové attack 1.129 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.203. Data: 60 Bohemians 1905 games / 60 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 30% | Draw 26% | Hradec Králové 44%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Hradec Králové 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hradec Králové at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 1905 60% | Hradec Králové 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Middle Play-offs - Final | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 30% | Draw 26% | Hradec Králové 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.14 / Hradec Králové 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.856 / def 1.072 | Hradec Králové attack 1.129 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Hradec Králové xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 18 May 2025 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové?
Bohemians 1905 1 - 0 Hradec Králové.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové is a Middle Play-offs - Final fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 30% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové?
Record (5 meetings): Bohemians 1905 2W | Draws 2 | Hradec Králové 1W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Hradec Králové (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bohemians 1905's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Hradec Králové's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Bohemians 1905's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.2%), 0-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
30%
3.39
26%
3.81
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.60
1.46
Hradec Králové xG
3.39
30%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
23%
4.29
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
7%
14.53
14%
7.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.8 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.46 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 67 outings, Bohemians 1905 have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 18W 22D 27L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Hradec Králové's form line: 26W 17D 24L from 67 games, 1.42 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bohemians 1905 on 1.13 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bohemians 1905 have posted 1.15 PPG from 34 outings (9W 12D 13L).
On the road, Hradec Králové have gone 10W 8D 16L from 34 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.19 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Hradec Králové in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Current Season
Hradec Králové
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 18W 22D 27L in their last 67 games (1.13 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 26W 17D 24L in their last 67 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Hradec Králové away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.15 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Bohemians 1905 or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Dec 2024, when Hradec Králové won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians 1905's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians 1905
3
Draws
4
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, Hradec Králové have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Bohemians 1905 0-0 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Hradec Králové see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 53%, Hradec Králové 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bohemians 1905) and 44% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové in 32%; Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 38% of games; Hradec Králové in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 38% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 44% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bohemians 1905 defy the odds to beat Hradec Králové 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Hradec Králové 1-0 at Stadion Ďolíček, Middle Play-offs - Final, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.14 xG and Hradec Králové 1.46 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hradec Králové landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.86 / defence 1.07 against Hradec Králové attack 1.13 / defence 0.98, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 30% | Draw 26% | Hradec Králové 44%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Bohemians 1905 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 48%, Hradec Králové 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (67 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (67 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.13 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.