Bohemians 1905 3-1 Dukla Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians 1905 vs Dukla Praha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Dukla Praha travel to Stadion Ďolíček to take on Bohemians 1905. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 November 2024, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Bohemians 1905 have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Ďolíček, Bohemians 1905 have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dukla Praha stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dukla Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dukla Praha away from home this season: 0W 2D 5L from 7 away games — 0.29 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.29 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.29 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Bohemians 1905 are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Bohemians 1905, 1 for Dukla Praha and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 27 Jul 2024, ended 0–1 with Dukla Praha winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Bohemians 1905 in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Dukla Praha in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 57% versus Dukla Praha 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 64% | Dukla Praha 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.70 xG and Dukla Praha 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.840 / defence 1.176 | Dukla Praha attack 0.566 / defence 1.362. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.148. Dukla Praha bring a strong defensive rating of 1.362 — this is suppressing Bohemians 1905's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Bohemians 1905 games / 14 Dukla Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 57% | Draw 29% | Dukla Praha 14%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 1.75 | Draw 3.45 | Dukla Praha 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Bohemians 1905 (57%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 1905 70% | Dukla Praha 29%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Dukla Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Nov 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 57% | Draw 29% | Dukla Praha 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 46% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.70 / Dukla Praha 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.840 / def 1.176 | Dukla Praha attack 0.566 / def 1.362 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (57%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Dukla Praha xG
46%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Dukla Praha kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Dukla Praha kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Dukla Praha?
Bohemians 1905 3 - 1 Dukla Praha.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Dukla Praha being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Dukla Praha part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Dukla Praha is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Dukla Praha?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 57% chance of winning, Dukla Praha a 14% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Dukla Praha?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Dukla Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Dukla Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Dukla Praha?
Record (1 meetings): Bohemians 1905 0W | Draws 0 | Dukla Praha 1W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Dukla Praha in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Dukla Praha (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Bohemians 1905 vs Dukla Praha?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bohemians 1905's attack at 0.84x the league average against Dukla Praha's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dukla Praha's attack versus Bohemians 1905's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.5%), 2-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
57%
1.75
29%
3.46
14%
7.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.46
0.77
Dukla Praha xG
1.75
57%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
7.11
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
47%
2.15
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
27%
3.77
3%
38.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 11.1 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Dukla Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Dukla Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 0.77 for Dukla Praha, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Dukla Praha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bohemians 1905's recent record stands at 4W 5D 5L from 14 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dukla Praha, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 9L across 14 games — 0.79 PPG, with D-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Dukla Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bohemians 1905 by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dukla Praha heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bohemians 1905 have managed 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — 0.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dukla Praha's away record stands at 0W 2D 4L across 6 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.79 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dukla Praha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians 1905 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Dukla Praha are on 0.71 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Last 14 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Dukla Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Dukla Praha in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 4W 5D 5L in their last 14 games (1.21 PPG), while Dukla Praha have gone 3W 2D 9L in their last 14 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Dukla Praha away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 0.83 PPG; Dukla Praha away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bohemians 1905 and Dukla Praha runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bohemians 1905 have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Bohemians 1905's record when hosting Dukla Praha specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Bohemians 1905
0
Draws
1
Dukla Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Dukla Praha?
From 4 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, Dukla Praha have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Dukla Praha last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Bohemians 1905 1-0 Dukla Praha.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Dukla Praha?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 67%, Dukla Praha 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Bohemians 1905 and 50% for Dukla Praha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 33% of games; Dukla Praha in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Dukla Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Dukla Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 33% of Dukla Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Dukla Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Bohemians 1905's matches and 50% of Dukla Praha's.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Dukla Praha tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Dukla Praha in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians 1905 cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Dukla Praha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Dukla Praha 3-1 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 16, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.70 xG and Dukla Praha 0.77 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.84 / defence 1.18 against Dukla Praha attack 0.57 / defence 1.36, drawn from 44/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 57% | Draw 29% | Dukla Praha 14%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 64%, Dukla Praha 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Dukla Praha's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bohemians 1905 arrived the stronger side — 1.21 PPG against 0.79. That form edge translated into the three points. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.