Baník Ostrava 1-3 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baník Ostrava at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Baník Ostrava vs Plzen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna plays host to Baník Ostrava versus Plzen in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 19 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Baník Ostrava (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Baník Ostrava have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Plzen's overall Czech Liga record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plzen's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Baník Ostrava against 2.10 for Plzen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Baník Ostrava 1W, Plzen 3W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Baník Ostrava — key trading statistics (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Plzen — key trading statistics (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 49% versus Plzen 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 49% | Plzen 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.28 xG and Plzen 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 1.053 / defence 0.791 | Plzen attack 1.025 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.228. Baník Ostrava's defence rating of 0.791 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Baník Ostrava games / 40 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 41% | Draw 33% | Plzen 27%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 2.44 | Draw 3.03 | Plzen 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Baník Ostrava as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Baník Ostrava 50% | Plzen 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 41% | Draw 33% | Plzen 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Baník Ostrava 1.28 / Plzen 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 1.053 / def 0.791 | Plzen attack 1.025 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Plzen xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Plzen kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Plzen kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Plzen?
Baník Ostrava 1 - 3 Plzen.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Plzen part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 41% chance of winning, Plzen a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Plzen?
Record (5 meetings): Baník Ostrava 1W | Draws 1 | Plzen 3W.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Plzen in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Plzen (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Baník Ostrava's attack at 1.05x the league average against Plzen's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Plzen's attack (1.02x) against Baník Ostrava's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
41%
2.46
33%
3.05
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.28
1.00
Plzen xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
15%
6.66
7%
13.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 10.2 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.00 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Baník Ostrava come into this having played 45 games, going 19W 10D 16L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-D. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Plzen sit at 2.02 PPG from 45 outings (27W 10D 8L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Baník Ostrava — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Baník Ostrava's home form reads 10W 5D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Plzen have taken 1.86 points per game from 21 outings (11W 6D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 2.09 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Plzen in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 19W 10D 16L in their last 45 games (1.49 PPG), while Plzen have gone 27W 10D 8L in their last 45 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.67 PPG; Plzen away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Baník Ostrava or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baník Ostrava have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Plzen in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Plzen go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Baník Ostrava have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Plzen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Baník Ostrava
1
Draws
6
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 3, Plzen have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Baník Ostrava 0-1 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Baník Ostrava see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 43%, Plzen 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Baník Ostrava) and 62% (Plzen).
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 62% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Baník Ostrava's recent games and 62% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baník Ostrava and Plzen tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Plzen in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plzen cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Baník Ostrava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Baník Ostrava 1-3 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Regular Season - 12, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.28 xG and Plzen 1.00 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Plzen outscored their 1.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 1.05 / defence 0.79 against Plzen attack 1.02 / defence 0.93, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 41% | Draw 33% | Plzen 27%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Plzen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 49%, Plzen 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Plzen's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.49. That form edge translated into the three points. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.