Baník Ostrava 5-2 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Baník Ostrava (73%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Baník Ostrava face Pardubice.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Pardubice travel to Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna to take on Baník Ostrava. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 March 2025, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Baník Ostrava stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Baník Ostrava have posted 8W 0D 2L at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Pardubice have recorded 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pardubice's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Baník Ostrava carry the stronger recent momentum — 2.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Baník Ostrava, 1 for Pardubice and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2024, ended 3–2 with Baník Ostrava winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Baník Ostrava in-play tendencies (61 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Pardubice in-play tendencies (61 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 48% versus Pardubice 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 51% | Pardubice 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 2.19 xG and Pardubice 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 1.202 / defence 0.803 | Pardubice attack 0.668 / defence 1.317. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.111. Pardubice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.317 — this is suppressing Baník Ostrava's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Baník Ostrava games / 56 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 73% | Draw 19% | Pardubice 8%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 1.37 | Draw 5.26 | Pardubice 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Baník Ostrava (73%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Baník Ostrava at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Baník Ostrava 50% | Pardubice 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Mar 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 73% | Draw 19% | Pardubice 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 41% | xG Baník Ostrava 2.19 / Pardubice 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 1.202 / def 0.803 | Pardubice attack 0.668 / def 1.317 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
0.60
Pardubice xG
41%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 March 2025 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice?
Baník Ostrava 5 - 2 Pardubice.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 73% chance of winning, Pardubice a 8% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Pardubice?
Record (6 meetings): Baník Ostrava 3W | Draws 2 | Pardubice 1W.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Pardubice in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Pardubice (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Baník Ostrava's attack at 1.20x the league average against Pardubice's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 2.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pardubice's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 0.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 3-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
73%
1.37
19%
5.29
8%
12.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
3 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.78
0.60
Pardubice xG
1.37
73%
Home win
5.29
19%
Draw
12.69
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
55%
1.81
11%
8.90
Win to Nil
40%
2.48
1%
112.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 8.1 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.8 | 8.8 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.8 | 6.4 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 0.60 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Baník Ostrava come into this having played 61 games, going 31W 10D 20L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pardubice sit at 0.92 PPG from 61 outings (14W 14D 33L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baník Ostrava carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Pardubice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Baník Ostrava's home form reads 16W 5D 8L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Pardubice have taken 0.90 points per game from 29 outings (7W 5D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baník Ostrava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 0.92 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 31W 10D 20L in their last 61 games (1.69 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 14W 14D 33L in their last 61 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Pardubice away?
Baník Ostrava's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.83 PPG; Pardubice away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Baník Ostrava or Pardubice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baník Ostrava have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Pardubice in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Pardubice have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Sep 2022, when Baník Ostrava won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baník Ostrava's record when hosting Pardubice specifically: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Baník Ostrava
2
Draws
3
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 5, Pardubice have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when Baník Ostrava 1-2 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Pardubice?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 45%, Pardubice 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Baník Ostrava) and 48% (Pardubice).
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Pardubice in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Pardubice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 38% of Pardubice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Baník Ostrava's recent games and 48% of Pardubice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baník Ostrava and Pardubice tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Baník Ostrava run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Pardubice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat Pardubice 5-2 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Regular Season - 27, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 2.19 xG and Pardubice 0.60 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Baník Ostrava beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pardubice outscored their 0.60 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 1.20 / defence 0.80 against Pardubice attack 0.67 / defence 1.32, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 73% | Draw 19% | Pardubice 8%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 73%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 51%, Pardubice 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (61 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Pardubice's trading profile (61 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.