Artis vs Bohemians 1905 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Artis vs Bohemians 1905 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Artis host Bohemians 1905 at Stadion SK Lisen in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 4 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Artis stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Artis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Artis at Stadion SK Lisen this season: 0W 2D 5L from 7 home games — 0.29 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 2.71 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.29 lags behind their overall 0.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion SK Lisen this season.
Bohemians 1905 — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bohemians 1905 — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Artis in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Bohemians 1905 in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Artis 57% versus Bohemians 1905 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Artis 71% | Bohemians 1905 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Artis 1.21 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Artis attack 0.744 / defence 1.447 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.017 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.284. Artis's attack strength of 0.744 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bohemians 1905 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.210 — this is suppressing Artis's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Artis games / 42 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Artis 22% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 1905 51%. Fair-value odds: Artis 4.55 | Draw 3.85 | Bohemians 1905 1.96. Bohemians 1905 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.21 / 1.89) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral: Artis 57% | Bohemians 1905 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Artis vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion SK Lisen • Kick-off: Wednesday 4 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Artis 22% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 1905 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Artis 1.21 / Bohemians 1905 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: Artis attack 0.744 / def 1.447 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.017 / def 1.210 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Artis xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Bohemians 1905 xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Artis vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Artis vs Bohemians 1905 is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Wednesday 4 November 2026 at Stadion SK Lisen.
Where is Artis vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion SK Lisen.
What competition is Artis vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Artis vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Artis vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Artis a 22% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 51% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Artis vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Artis and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Artis vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Artis and Bohemians 1905?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Artis and Bohemians 1905 in?
Artis (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Artis's attack at 0.74x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians 1905's attack versus Artis's defence, projects 1.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
22%
4.46
26%
3.79
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Artis xG
Total xG
3.10
1.89
Bohemians 1905 xG
4.46
22%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
15%
6.61
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
3%
29.45
15%
6.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 8.5 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Artis vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Artis and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Artis and 1.89 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Artis vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Artis come into this having played 14 games, going 2W 4D 8L for 0.71 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-D. The sample for Artis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 1.43 PPG from 14 outings (5W 5D 4L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bohemians 1905 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Artis — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Artis's home form reads 0W 2D 5L across 7 games on their own ground, a 0.29 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.71 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 1.14 points per game from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians 1905 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Artis are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.14 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Bohemians 1905 in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Artis
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Artis and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Artis have gone 2W 4D 8L in their last 14 games (0.71 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 5W 5D 4L in their last 14 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Artis at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Bohemians 1905's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Artis at home: 0.29 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Artis or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Artis have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 43%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Artis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Artis 57%, Bohemians 1905 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Artis and 86% for Bohemians 1905. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Artis have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Artis home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Artis play Bohemians 1905?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Artis's games and 71% of Bohemians 1905's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Artis vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Artis's matches and 86% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do Artis and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Artis have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.