Artis vs Bohemians 1905 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Artis vs Bohemians 1905 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Artis host Bohemians 1905 at Town Stadium Karvina in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Artis stand at 1W 1D 7L from 9 Czech Liga matches — 0.44 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.78 goals per game and conceding 2.56 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.56 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Artis have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Artis at Town Stadium Karvina this season: 0W 0D 5L from 5 home games — 0.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 3.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bohemians 1905 — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bohemians 1905's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bohemians 1905 — 1.06 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.44). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Artis in-play tendencies (9 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Bohemians 1905 in-play tendencies (9 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Artis 56% versus Bohemians 1905 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Artis 78% | Bohemians 1905 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Artis 0.98 xG and Bohemians 1905 2.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Artis attack 0.642 / defence 1.660 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.946 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.288. Artis's attack strength of 0.642 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Artis games / 36 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Artis 17% | Draw 22% | Bohemians 1905 61%. Fair-value odds: Artis 5.88 | Draw 4.55 | Bohemians 1905 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Bohemians 1905 (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Artis 60% | Bohemians 1905 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Artis vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Town Stadium Karvina • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Artis 17% | Draw 22% | Bohemians 1905 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 54% | xG Artis 0.98 / Bohemians 1905 2.02 • Poisson strength factors: Artis attack 0.642 / def 1.660 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.946 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Artis xG
Expected Goals
2.02
Bohemians 1905 xG
54%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Artis vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Artis vs Bohemians 1905 is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Town Stadium Karvina.
Where is Artis vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Town Stadium Karvina.
What competition is Artis vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Artis vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Artis vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Artis a 17% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 61% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Artis vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Artis and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Artis vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Artis and Bohemians 1905?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Artis and Bohemians 1905 in?
Artis (all comps): 1W-1D-7L in 9 | 0.44 PPG | GF 0.78 / GA 2.56 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Artis's attack at 0.64x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians 1905's attack versus Artis's defence, projects 2.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.2%), 1-2 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
17%
5.87
22%
4.59
61%
1.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Artis xG
Total xG
3.00
2.02
Bohemians 1905 xG
5.87
17%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
1.64
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
13%
7.55
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
2%
44.26
23%
4.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 10.1 | 10.2 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Artis vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Artis and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Artis and 2.02 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Artis vs Bohemians 1905?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Artis come into this having played 9 games, going 1W 1D 7L for 0.44 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Artis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 1.33 PPG from 9 outings (3W 3D 3L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bohemians 1905 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.89 PPG clear of Artis — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Artis's home form reads 0W 0D 5L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.00 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.44 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 1.40 points per game from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians 1905 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Artis are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 2.56 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.22 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Artis
Early Season
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Artis and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Artis have gone 1W 1D 7L in their last 9 games (0.44 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 3W 3D 3L in their last 9 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Artis at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Bohemians 1905's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Artis at home: 0.00 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Artis or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Artis have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 33%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Artis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Artis 60%, Bohemians 1905 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Artis and 80% for Bohemians 1905. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Artis have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Artis home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Artis play Bohemians 1905?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Artis's games and 60% of Bohemians 1905's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Artis vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Artis's matches and 80% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do Artis and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Artis have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.