Yunnan Yukun 1-1 Dalian Zhixing – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Yunnan Yukun at 58%, yet in-form Dalian Zhixing provide a compelling counter-argument — this Yunnan Yukun vs Dalian Zhixing fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dalian Zhixing make the trip to Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium to face Yunnan Yukun in Super League, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Friday 19 September 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Yunnan Yukun's overall Super League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.70 conceded. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Yunnan Yukun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Yunnan Yukun's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Yunnan Yukun are significantly better at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Dalian Zhixing have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Zhixing, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dalian Zhixing have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Dalian Zhixing are 0.70 PPG clear of Yunnan Yukun in recent Super League fixtures (1.80 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Yunnan Yukun 0W, Dalian Zhixing 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2025, ended 2–3 with Dalian Zhixing winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Yunnan Yukun — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Dalian Zhixing — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Yunnan Yukun 78% versus Dalian Zhixing 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yunnan Yukun 65% | Dalian Zhixing 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yunnan Yukun 2.17 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yunnan Yukun attack 1.008 / defence 1.373 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.675 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 1.832 / away 1.324. Data: 24 Yunnan Yukun games / 23 Dalian Zhixing games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 58% | Draw 22% | Dalian Zhixing 20%. Fair-value odds: Yunnan Yukun 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | Dalian Zhixing 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Yunnan Yukun (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Yunnan Yukun are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dalian Zhixing (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.39 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Yunnan Yukun 80% | Dalian Zhixing 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yunnan Yukun vs Dalian Zhixing | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 19 Sep 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 58% | Draw 22% | Dalian Zhixing 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 63% | xG Yunnan Yukun 2.17 / Dalian Zhixing 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Yunnan Yukun attack 1.008 / def 1.373 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.675 / def 1.174 | league avg home 1.832 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: Yunnan Yukun (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Yunnan Yukun xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Dalian Zhixing xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yunnan Yukun vs Dalian Zhixing kick off?
Yunnan Yukun vs Dalian Zhixing kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 19 September 2025 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Yunnan Yukun vs Dalian Zhixing?
Yunnan Yukun 1 - 1 Dalian Zhixing.
Where is Yunnan Yukun vs Dalian Zhixing being played?
The match is being played at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Yunnan Yukun vs Dalian Zhixing part of?
Yunnan Yukun vs Dalian Zhixing is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Yunnan Yukun vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our statistical model gives Yunnan Yukun a 58% chance of winning, Dalian Zhixing a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Yunnan Yukun the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yunnan Yukun vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Yunnan Yukun and Dalian Zhixing will score (BTTS).
Will Yunnan Yukun vs Dalian Zhixing have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Dalian Zhixing?
Record (1 meetings): Yunnan Yukun 0W | Draws 0 | Dalian Zhixing 1W.
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Dalian Zhixing in?
Yunnan Yukun (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Dalian Zhixing (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Yunnan Yukun's attack at 1.01x the league average against Dalian Zhixing's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 2.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dalian Zhixing's attack (0.68x) against Yunnan Yukun's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 24/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Yunnan Yukun Win
58%
1.73
22%
4.53
20%
5.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Yunnan Yukun xG
Total xG
3.39
1.23
Dalian Zhixing xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
5.00
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
11%
8.73
Win to Nil
17%
5.89
2%
43.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yunnan Yukun vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Yunnan Yukun and Dalian Zhixing expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Yunnan Yukun and 1.23 for Dalian Zhixing, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Yunnan Yukun vs Dalian Zhixing?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Yunnan Yukun's recent record stands at 8W 6D 9L from 23 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Yunnan Yukun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dalian Zhixing, meanwhile, have gone 9W 5D 9L across 23 games — 1.39 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Dalian Zhixing is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Yunnan Yukun against 1.39 for Dalian Zhixing. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Yunnan Yukun have managed 6W 3D 2L from 11 games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Yunnan Yukun are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Dalian Zhixing's away record stands at 1W 4D 6L across 11 trips, a 0.64 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dalian Zhixing's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Yunnan Yukun come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Yunnan Yukun are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Dalian Zhixing are on 1.00 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yunnan Yukun have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yunnan Yukun
Blended
Dalian Zhixing
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Dalian Zhixing in coming into this match?
Yunnan Yukun have gone 8W 6D 9L in their last 23 games (1.30 PPG), while Dalian Zhixing have gone 9W 5D 9L in their last 23 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yunnan Yukun at home or Dalian Zhixing away?
Yunnan Yukun's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yunnan Yukun at home: 1.91 PPG; Dalian Zhixing away: 0.64 PPG.
Have Yunnan Yukun or Dalian Zhixing been keeping clean sheets recently?
Yunnan Yukun have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Dalian Zhixing in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Yunnan Yukun have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Yunnan Yukun have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dalian Zhixing — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Yunnan Yukun
1
Draws
1
Dalian Zhixing
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Dalian Zhixing?
From 4 meetings on record, Yunnan Yukun have won 2, Dalian Zhixing have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Yunnan Yukun and Dalian Zhixing last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Yunnan Yukun 3-1 Dalian Zhixing.
Who has won more matches between Yunnan Yukun and Dalian Zhixing?
Yunnan Yukun have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Yunnan Yukun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Dalian Zhixing are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Yunnan Yukun 82%, Dalian Zhixing 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Yunnan Yukun) and 36% (Dalian Zhixing).
On the defensive side: Dalian Zhixing in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yunnan Yukun home games / Dalian Zhixing away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yunnan Yukun play Dalian Zhixing?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Yunnan Yukun's games and 46% of Dalian Zhixing's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Yunnan Yukun vs Dalian Zhixing usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Yunnan Yukun's recent games and 36% of Dalian Zhixing's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Yunnan Yukun and Dalian Zhixing tend to score early?
Yunnan Yukun have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Dalian Zhixing in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Yunnan Yukun and Dalian Zhixing share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yunnan Yukun and Dalian Zhixing finished level at 1-1 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yunnan Yukun 2.17 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.23 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Yunnan Yukun fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yunnan Yukun attack 1.01 / defence 1.37 against Dalian Zhixing attack 0.68 / defence 1.17, drawn from 24/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yunnan Yukun 58% | Draw 22% | Dalian Zhixing 20%, with Yunnan Yukun to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yunnan Yukun 65%, Dalian Zhixing 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yunnan Yukun's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Dalian Zhixing's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Yunnan Yukun 1.30 PPG, Dalian Zhixing 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Yunnan Yukun (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Dalian Zhixing (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.