Wuhan Zall 2-2 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Henan Jianye at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wuhan Zall vs Henan Jianye encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dongxihu Sports Centre plays host to Wuhan Zall versus Henan Jianye in Super League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 21 August 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wuhan Zall have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Zall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wuhan Zall's home record at Dongxihu Sports Centre: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Wuhan Zall are significantly better at Dongxihu Sports Centre than their overall form suggests.
Henan Jianye's overall Super League record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Henan Jianye away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Henan Jianye are 1.20 PPG clear of Wuhan Zall in recent Super League fixtures (1.90 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Wuhan Zall lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Dec 2021, ended 0–1 with Henan Jianye winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Wuhan Zall half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Henan Jianye half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 19% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 19% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Zall 63% versus Henan Jianye 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Zall 54% | Henan Jianye 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Zall 0.96 xG and Henan Jianye 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Zall attack 1.007 / defence 1.407 | Henan Jianye attack 0.965 / defence 0.713. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.314. Henan Jianye's defence strength of 0.713 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 27 Wuhan Zall games / 27 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wuhan Zall 20% | Draw 24% | Henan Jianye 56%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Zall 5.00 | Draw 4.17 | Henan Jianye 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Henan Jianye (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Henan Jianye at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wuhan Zall 100% | Henan Jianye 10% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Zall vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Dongxihu Sports Centre • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Aug 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Zall 20% | Draw 24% | Henan Jianye 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 52% | xG Wuhan Zall 0.96 / Henan Jianye 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Zall attack 1.007 / def 1.407 | Henan Jianye attack 0.965 / def 0.713 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Wuhan Zall xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Henan Jianye xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Zall vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Wuhan Zall vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 21 August 2022 at Dongxihu Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Wuhan Zall vs Henan Jianye?
Wuhan Zall 2 - 2 Henan Jianye.
Where is Wuhan Zall vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Dongxihu Sports Centre.
What competition is Wuhan Zall vs Henan Jianye part of?
Wuhan Zall vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Zall vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Zall a 20% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 56% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Zall vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Wuhan Zall and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Zall vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Zall and Henan Jianye?
Record (2 meetings): Wuhan Zall 0W | Draws 1 | Henan Jianye 1W.
What form are Wuhan Zall and Henan Jianye in?
Wuhan Zall (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Henan Jianye (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Wuhan Zall's attack rating (1.01) and Henan Jianye's defence rating (0.71), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Henan Jianye's attack (0.96x) against Wuhan Zall's defence (1.41x) — and the away total comes out at 1.78.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.2%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
20%
5.07
24%
4.18
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Wuhan Zall xG
Total xG
2.74
1.78
Henan Jianye xG
5.07
20%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
17%
5.95
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
3%
30.15
22%
4.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 11.5 | 10.2 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Zall vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Wuhan Zall and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Wuhan Zall and 1.78 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Zall vs Henan Jianye?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Wuhan Zall come into this having played 35 games, going 8W 12D 15L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. The sample for Wuhan Zall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Henan Jianye sit at 1.60 PPG from 35 outings (15W 11D 9L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Henan Jianye carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Wuhan Zall — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Wuhan Zall's home form reads 4W 7D 5L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Henan Jianye have taken 1.12 points per game from 16 outings (4W 6D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.60 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Henan Jianye's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wuhan Zall are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.29 scored and 0.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wuhan Zall have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Henan Jianye in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Zall
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wuhan Zall and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Wuhan Zall have gone 8W 12D 15L in their last 35 games (1.03 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 15W 11D 9L in their last 35 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Zall at home or Henan Jianye away?
Wuhan Zall's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Zall at home: 1.19 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Wuhan Zall or Henan Jianye been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wuhan Zall have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Henan Jianye in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Henan Jianye won 3-0 on 22 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wuhan Zall have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Wuhan Zall
2
Draws
2
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Zall and Henan Jianye?
From 4 meetings on record, Wuhan Zall have won 0, Henan Jianye have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Zall and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2022, when Henan Jianye 3-0 Wuhan Zall.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Zall and Henan Jianye?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wuhan Zall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Zall 88%, Henan Jianye 19% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Wuhan Zall) and 19% (Henan Jianye).
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye in 50%; Henan Jianye in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Zall home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wuhan Zall play Henan Jianye?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 88% of Wuhan Zall's recent matches and 19% of Henan Jianye's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wuhan Zall vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Wuhan Zall's recent games and 19% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wuhan Zall and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Wuhan Zall have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wuhan Zall and Henan Jianye share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dongxihu Sports Centre, Regular Season - 14, as Wuhan Zall and Henan Jianye drew 2-2 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Zall 0.96 xG and Henan Jianye 1.78 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Wuhan Zall beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Zall attack 1.01 / defence 1.41 against Henan Jianye attack 0.96 / defence 0.71, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Zall 20% | Draw 24% | Henan Jianye 56%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Zall 54%, Henan Jianye 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Zall's trading profile (35 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (35 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Henan Jianye arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.