Hebei Zhongji 1-7 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Changchun Yatai at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hebei Zhongji vs Changchun Yatai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 14 as Hebei Zhongji welcome Changchun Yatai to Mission Hills Football Base Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 19 August 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Hebei Zhongji have gone 1W 0D 9L from 10 outings — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Hebei Zhongji, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hebei Zhongji's home record at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium: 1W 0D 9L from 10 Super League appearances (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Changchun Yatai — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Changchun Yatai's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Changchun Yatai's 0.90 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Hebei Zhongji's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Hebei Zhongji, 1 for Changchun Yatai and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2021, ended 0–3 with Changchun Yatai winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Hebei Zhongji in-play and half-time data (34 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Changchun Yatai in-play and half-time data (34 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hebei Zhongji 38% versus Changchun Yatai 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hebei Zhongji 44% | Changchun Yatai 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hebei Zhongji 1.39 xG and Changchun Yatai 2.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.782 / defence 1.745 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.039 / defence 1.324. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.273. Hebei Zhongji's attack strength of 0.782 is below the league average — the 1.39 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Changchun Yatai bring a strong defensive rating of 1.324 — this is suppressing Hebei Zhongji's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Hebei Zhongji games / 26 Changchun Yatai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 22% | Draw 20% | Changchun Yatai 58%. Fair-value odds: Hebei Zhongji 4.55 | Draw 5.00 | Changchun Yatai 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Changchun Yatai (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.70. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.70 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 2.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Changchun Yatai as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.70 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Hebei Zhongji 30% | Changchun Yatai 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hebei Zhongji vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Mission Hills Football Base Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 19 Aug 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 22% | Draw 20% | Changchun Yatai 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 68% | xG Hebei Zhongji 1.39 / Changchun Yatai 2.31 • Poisson strength factors: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.782 / def 1.745 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.039 / def 1.324 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Hebei Zhongji xG
Expected Goals
2.31
Changchun Yatai xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hebei Zhongji vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Hebei Zhongji vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 19 August 2022 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What was the final score in Hebei Zhongji vs Changchun Yatai?
Hebei Zhongji 1 - 7 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Hebei Zhongji vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What competition is Hebei Zhongji vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Hebei Zhongji vs Changchun Yatai is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hebei Zhongji vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Hebei Zhongji a 22% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 58% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hebei Zhongji vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Hebei Zhongji and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will Hebei Zhongji vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hebei Zhongji and Changchun Yatai?
Record (2 meetings): Hebei Zhongji 1W | Draws 0 | Changchun Yatai 1W.
What form are Hebei Zhongji and Changchun Yatai in?
Hebei Zhongji (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Changchun Yatai (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hebei Zhongji's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Changchun Yatai's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Changchun Yatai's attack versus Hebei Zhongji's defence, projects 2.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 9.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.0%), 1-3 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
22%
4.46
20%
5.10
58%
1.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
1 – 3
7.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Hebei Zhongji xG
Total xG
3.70
2.31
Changchun Yatai xG
4.46
22%
Home win
5.10
20%
Draw
1.72
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.09
Clean Sheet
10%
10.04
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
2%
44.80
14%
6.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.5 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hebei Zhongji vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Hebei Zhongji and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Hebei Zhongji and 2.31 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 3.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Hebei Zhongji vs Changchun Yatai?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hebei Zhongji come into this having played 34 games, going 7W 6D 21L for 0.79 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Hebei Zhongji is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Changchun Yatai sit at 1.53 PPG from 34 outings (13W 13D 8L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Changchun Yatai carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Hebei Zhongji — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Hebei Zhongji's home form reads 5W 3D 10L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Changchun Yatai have taken 1.33 points per game from 18 outings (6W 6D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Hebei Zhongji are averaging 0.65 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.38 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
Changchun Yatai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hebei Zhongji and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Hebei Zhongji have gone 7W 6D 21L in their last 34 games (0.79 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 13W 13D 8L in their last 34 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hebei Zhongji at home or Changchun Yatai away?
Changchun Yatai's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hebei Zhongji at home: 1.00 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Hebei Zhongji or Changchun Yatai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hebei Zhongji have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Changchun Yatai in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Changchun Yatai have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2022, when Changchun Yatai won 1-7 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hebei Zhongji's record when hosting Changchun Yatai specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Hebei Zhongji
0
Draws
3
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hebei Zhongji and Changchun Yatai?
From 4 meetings on record, Hebei Zhongji have won 1, Changchun Yatai have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hebei Zhongji and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 21 November 2022, when Changchun Yatai 4-1 Hebei Zhongji.
Who has won more matches between Hebei Zhongji and Changchun Yatai?
Changchun Yatai have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hebei Zhongji are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Changchun Yatai see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hebei Zhongji 39%, Changchun Yatai 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Hebei Zhongji) and 67% (Changchun Yatai). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hebei Zhongji have failed to score in 50% of games; Changchun Yatai in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hebei Zhongji home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hebei Zhongji play Changchun Yatai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Hebei Zhongji's recent matches and 61% of Changchun Yatai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hebei Zhongji vs Changchun Yatai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Hebei Zhongji's matches and 67% of Changchun Yatai's.
Do Hebei Zhongji and Changchun Yatai tend to score early?
Hebei Zhongji have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Changchun Yatai in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Changchun Yatai run riot with a 1-7 hammering of Hebei Zhongji.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai beat Hebei Zhongji 1-7 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hebei Zhongji 1.39 xG and Changchun Yatai 2.31 xG, a combined 3.70. The scoreboard read 1-7 for 8 actual goals. Changchun Yatai outscored their 2.31 projection by 4.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hebei Zhongji attack 0.78 / defence 1.75 against Changchun Yatai attack 1.04 / defence 1.32, drawn from 27/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hebei Zhongji 22% | Draw 20% | Changchun Yatai 58%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hebei Zhongji 44%, Changchun Yatai 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (34 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (34 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Changchun Yatai arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.79. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hebei Zhongji (home/away splits) shipped 7 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.