Wuhan Three Towns 2-2 Dalian Zhixing – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wuhan Three Towns at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Wuhan Three Towns face Dalian Zhixing.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dalian Zhixing make the trip to Wuhan Sports Centre to face Wuhan Three Towns in Super League (matchday 12). The match kicks off on Sunday 11 May 2025 at 13:35 UK time.
Form
Wuhan Three Towns (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Wuhan Three Towns's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 1.82 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.979 / defence 1.209 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.635 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.434. Dalian Zhixing's attack rating of 0.635 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.10. Wuhan Three Towns's defence rating of 1.209 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dalian Zhixing's projected output up. Data: built from Wuhan Three Towns's last 41 games and Dalian Zhixing's last 11.
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 54% | Draw 24% | Dalian Zhixing 22%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 1.85 | Draw 4.22 | Dalian Zhixing 4.47. Wuhan Three Towns hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wuhan Three Towns are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wuhan Three Towns if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Zhixing | Competition: Super League, matchday 12 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Centre • Kick-off: Sunday 11 May 2025 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 54% | Draw 24% | Dalian Zhixing 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Wuhan Three Towns 1.82 / Dalian Zhixing 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.979 / def 1.209 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.635 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.434 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Dalian Zhixing xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Zhixing FAQs
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Zhixing kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Zhixing kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Sunday 11 May 2025 at Wuhan Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Zhixing?
Wuhan Three Towns 2 - 2 Dalian Zhixing.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Zhixing being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Centre.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Zhixing part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Zhixing is a Super League fixture (matchday 12) (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 54% chance of winning, Dalian Zhixing a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Dalian Zhixing will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Zhixing have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Wuhan Three Towns's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Dalian Zhixing's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. Flip it around — Dalian Zhixing's attack (0.64x) against Wuhan Three Towns's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from Wuhan Three Towns's last 41 games and Dalian Zhixing's last 11 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
54%
1.85
24%
4.22
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
2.93
1.10
Dalian Zhixing xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
16%
6.20
Win to Nil
18%
5.57
4%
27.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 10.8 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Zhixing Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and Dalian Zhixing expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.10 for Dalian Zhixing, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Zhixing?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Pre-Season
Dalian Zhixing
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Wuhan Three Towns (Home) vs Dalian Zhixing (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wuhan Three Towns
Pre-Season
Dalian Zhixing
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2025 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 4 July 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wuhan Three Towns won Wuhan Three Towns 4-1 Dalian Zhixing on 13 Mar 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Dalian Zhixing — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Wuhan Three Towns
2
Draws
1
Dalian Zhixing
Recent Meetings
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Dalian Zhixing H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Dalian Zhixing?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Wuhan Three Towns have won 1, Dalian Zhixing have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and Dalian Zhixing last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 July 2026: Dalian Zhixing 3-2 Wuhan Three Towns.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / Dalian Zhixing away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Wuhan Three Towns and Dalian Zhixing share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Wuhan Sports Centre, Regular Season - 12, as Wuhan Three Towns and Dalian Zhixing drew 2-2 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 1.82 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.10 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Dalian Zhixing outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.98 / defence 1.21 against Dalian Zhixing attack 0.64 / defence 1.09, drawn from 41/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 54% | Draw 24% | Dalian Zhixing 22%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.