Dalian Zhixing 0-3 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shanghai Shenhua at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalian Zhixing vs Shanghai Shenhua fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dalian Zhixing and Shanghai Shenhua meet at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 May 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Shanghai Shenhua have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Shanghai Shenhua's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Zhixing 0.93 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.816 / defence 0.950 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.023 / defence 0.663. League average goals — home 1.718 / away 1.437. Shanghai Shenhua's defence strength of 0.663 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 12 Dalian Zhixing games / 42 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 25% | Draw 28% | Shanghai Shenhua 47%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Zhixing 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | Shanghai Shenhua 2.13. Shanghai Shenhua hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shanghai Shenhua at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Zhixing vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 May 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 25% | Draw 28% | Shanghai Shenhua 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Dalian Zhixing 0.93 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.816 / def 0.950 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.023 / def 0.663 | league avg home 1.718 / away 1.437 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Dalian Zhixing xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Shanghai Shenhua xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Zhixing vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Dalian Zhixing vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 17 May 2025 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Zhixing vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Dalian Zhixing 0 - 3 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Dalian Zhixing vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Zhixing vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Dalian Zhixing vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Zhixing vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Zhixing a 25% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Zhixing vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Dalian Zhixing and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Zhixing vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Shanghai Shenhua?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dalian Zhixing and Shanghai Shenhua in?
Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Shanghai Shenhua away split: 2.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | CS 6.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Dalian Zhixing's attack at 0.82x the league average against Shanghai Shenhua's defence at 0.66x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shanghai Shenhua's attack (1.02x) against Dalian Zhixing's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 12/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.0%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
25%
4.06
28%
3.58
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Dalian Zhixing xG
Total xG
2.33
1.40
Shanghai Shenhua xG
4.06
25%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
39%
2.53
Win to Nil
6%
16.39
19%
5.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 13.7 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Zhixing vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Dalian Zhixing and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Dalian Zhixing and 1.40 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Zhixing vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Zhixing
Pre-Season
Shanghai Shenhua
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 28 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Shanghai Shenhua have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shanghai Shenhua won 0-3 on 17 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dalian Zhixing have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Shanghai Shenhua — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dalian Zhixing
1
Draws
3
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Shanghai Shenhua?
From 4 meetings on record, Dalian Zhixing have won 0, Shanghai Shenhua have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Zhixing and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
They last met on 28 June 2026, when Dalian Zhixing 1-4 Shanghai Shenhua.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Zhixing and Shanghai Shenhua?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Zhixing home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Shanghai Shenhua run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Dalian Zhixing.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Dalian Zhixing 0-3 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Zhixing 0.93 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.40 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Dalian Zhixing fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Shanghai Shenhua outscored their 1.40 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Zhixing attack 0.82 / defence 0.95 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.02 / defence 0.66, drawn from 12/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Zhixing 25% | Draw 28% | Shanghai Shenhua 47%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.