Tianjin Teda 4-0 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns meet at Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 14 September 2025 at 12:35 UTC.
Current Form
Tianjin Teda's overall Super League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tianjin Teda's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Olympic Sports Center Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
Wuhan Three Towns have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Three Towns, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wuhan Three Towns's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Tianjin Teda's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Wuhan Three Towns's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Tianjin Teda lead 2W to 4W over the last 7 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2025, ended 1–2 with Wuhan Three Towns winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Tianjin Teda — key trading statistics (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Wuhan Three Towns — key trading statistics (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 58% versus Wuhan Three Towns 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 58% | Wuhan Three Towns 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.66 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.811 / defence 0.743 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.836 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 1.803 / away 1.295. Tianjin Teda's defence rating of 0.743 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Tianjin Teda games / 53 Wuhan Three Towns games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 56% | Draw 27% | Wuhan Three Towns 17%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 1.79 | Draw 3.70 | Wuhan Three Towns 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Tianjin Teda (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Wuhan Three Towns lead the H2H ledger, but Tianjin Teda carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Tianjin Teda 40% | Wuhan Three Towns 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Sep 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 56% | Draw 27% | Wuhan Three Towns 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 46% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.66 / Wuhan Three Towns 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.811 / def 0.743 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.836 / def 1.138 | league avg home 1.803 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Wuhan Three Towns xG
46%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 14 September 2025 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Tianjin Teda 4 - 0 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 56% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 17% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns?
Record (7 meetings): Tianjin Teda 2W | Draws 1 | Wuhan Three Towns 4W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-D. Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Tianjin Teda's attack at 0.81x the league average against Wuhan Three Towns's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Wuhan Three Towns's attack (0.84x) against Tianjin Teda's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 2-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
56%
1.77
27%
3.71
17%
6.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.47
0.80
Wuhan Three Towns xG
1.77
56%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
6.03
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
25%
3.96
3%
31.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 11.3 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 0.80 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Tianjin Teda's recent record stands at 21W 13D 19L from 53 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wuhan Three Towns, meanwhile, have gone 14W 13D 26L across 53 games — 1.04 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Wuhan Three Towns is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Tianjin Teda against 1.04 for Wuhan Three Towns. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Tianjin Teda have managed 12W 8D 5L from 25 games — 1.76 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wuhan Three Towns's away record stands at 6W 6D 13L across 25 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tianjin Teda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Three Towns are on 1.11 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 21W 13D 19L in their last 53 games (1.43 PPG), while Wuhan Three Towns have gone 14W 13D 26L in their last 53 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Wuhan Three Towns away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.76 PPG; Wuhan Three Towns away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tianjin Teda won 4-0 on 14 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tianjin Teda have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Wuhan Three Towns — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Tianjin Teda
3
Draws
4
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns?
From 10 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 3, Wuhan Three Towns have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Wuhan Three Towns 0-0 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 44%, Wuhan Three Towns 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Tianjin Teda) and 52% (Wuhan Three Towns).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Wuhan Three Towns in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Wuhan Three Towns?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 64% of Wuhan Three Towns's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Three Towns usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 52% of Wuhan Three Towns's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tianjin Teda and Wuhan Three Towns tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Wuhan Three Towns in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Tianjin Teda run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Wuhan Three Towns.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Wuhan Three Towns 4-0 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.66 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 0.80 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Tianjin Teda beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Wuhan Three Towns landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.81 / defence 0.74 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.84 / defence 1.14, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 56% | Draw 27% | Wuhan Three Towns 17%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 58%, Wuhan Three Towns 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 1.43 PPG, Wuhan Three Towns 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tianjin Teda win broke the near-deadlock. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.