Tianjin Teda 2-2 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Beijing Guoan travel to Olympic Sports Center Stadium to take on Tianjin Teda. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 2 April 2025, 12:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Tianjin Teda stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Tianjin Teda's home record at Olympic Sports Center Stadium: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League appearances (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Beijing Guoan — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Beijing Guoan's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Tianjin Teda 1.80 PPG, Beijing Guoan 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Beijing Guoan have the better historical record — 4 wins from 6 previous contests against 0 for Tianjin Teda.
The last 6 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 Jul 2024, ended 0–2 with Beijing Guoan winning.
It is worth noting that Beijing Guoan have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Tianjin Teda trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Beijing Guoan trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Tianjin Teda 62% and Beijing Guoan 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 50% | Beijing Guoan 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.40 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.936 / defence 0.876 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.120 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.687 / away 1.467. Data: 33 Tianjin Teda games / 33 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 35% | Draw 29% | Beijing Guoan 36%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Beijing Guoan 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beijing Guoan at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 50% | Beijing Guoan 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 2 Apr 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 35% | Draw 29% | Beijing Guoan 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 60% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.40 / Beijing Guoan 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.936 / def 0.876 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.120 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.687 / away 1.467 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Beijing Guoan xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 12:35 on Wednesday 2 April 2025 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan?
Tianjin Teda 2 - 2 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 35% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan?
Record (6 meetings): Tianjin Teda 0W | Draws 2 | Beijing Guoan 4W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Tianjin Teda's attack rating (0.94) and Beijing Guoan's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Beijing Guoan's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
35%
2.89
29%
3.44
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.84
1.44
Beijing Guoan xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
8%
12.18
9%
11.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.8 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.44 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Tianjin Teda's recent record stands at 23W 21D 16L from 60 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Beijing Guoan, meanwhile, have gone 30W 17D 13L across 60 games — 1.78 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Tianjin Teda on 1.50 PPG, Beijing Guoan on 1.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Tianjin Teda have managed 12W 15D 3L from 30 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beijing Guoan's away record stands at 12W 10D 8L across 30 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.97 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tianjin Teda have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Beijing Guoan in 63%.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 23W 21D 16L in their last 60 games (1.50 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 30W 17D 13L in their last 60 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.70 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Tianjin Teda or Beijing Guoan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Beijing Guoan in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Tianjin Teda's record when hosting Beijing Guoan specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Tianjin Teda
4
Draws
5
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan?
From 10 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 1, Beijing Guoan have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Tianjin Teda 2-4 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 57%, Beijing Guoan 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Tianjin Teda) and 53% (Beijing Guoan).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Beijing Guoan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Tianjin Teda's games and 63% of Beijing Guoan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 53% of Beijing Guoan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 4, as Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan drew 2-2 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.40 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.44 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.94 / defence 0.88 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.12 / defence 0.89, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 35% | Draw 29% | Beijing Guoan 36%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 50%, Beijing Guoan 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 1.50 PPG, Beijing Guoan 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.