Sichuan Jiuniu 2-2 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sichuan Jiuniu host Shijiazhuang Y. J. at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 29 March 2024 at 11:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Super League matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.21 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.726 / defence 1.438 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.935 / defence 1.258. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.231. Sichuan Jiuniu's attack strength of 0.726 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Shijiazhuang Y. J. bring a strong defensive rating of 1.258 — this is suppressing Sichuan Jiuniu's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 32 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 27% | Draw 26% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 47%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 3.70 | Draw 3.85 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.13. Shijiazhuang Y. J. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shijiazhuang Y. J. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 Mar 2024, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 27% | Draw 26% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Sichuan Jiuniu 1.21 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.726 / def 1.438 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.935 / def 1.258 | league avg home 1.325 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Shijiazhuang Y. J. (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 11:35 on Friday 29 March 2024 at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What was the final score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Sichuan Jiuniu 2 - 2 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What competition is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 27% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 47% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Shijiazhuang Y. J. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sichuan Jiuniu and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score (BTTS).
Will Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Shijiazhuang Y. J. away split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 0.80 / GA 3.00 | CS 0.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sichuan Jiuniu's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack versus Sichuan Jiuniu's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shijiazhuang Y. J. Win
27%
3.72
26%
3.80
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Total xG
2.86
1.66
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
3.72
27%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
19%
5.23
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
5%
19.45
14%
7.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.4 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.4 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Sichuan Jiuniu and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Sichuan Jiuniu and 1.66 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sichuan Jiuniu
Pre-Season
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 July 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Sichuan Jiuniu
2
Draws
0
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
From 2 meetings on record, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 0, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sichuan Jiuniu and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
They last met on 6 July 2024, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-1 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sichuan Jiuniu home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Sichuan Jiuniu and Shijiazhuang Y. J. share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium, Regular Season - 3, as Sichuan Jiuniu and Shijiazhuang Y. J. drew 2-2 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 1.21 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.66 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.73 / defence 1.44 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.94 / defence 1.26, drawn from 2/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 27% | Draw 26% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 47%, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.