Sichuan Jiuniu 1-3 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sichuan Jiuniu at 49%, yet in-form Shandong Luneng provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shandong Luneng fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Longquanyi Stadium plays host to Sichuan Jiuniu versus Shandong Luneng in Super League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 16 August 2025 at 12:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sichuan Jiuniu have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sichuan Jiuniu's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Longquanyi Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Sichuan Jiuniu are significantly better at Longquanyi Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Shandong Luneng's overall Super League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Shandong Luneng have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Shandong Luneng are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Sichuan Jiuniu register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Shandong Luneng in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Shandong Luneng hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 3 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2025, ended 0–4 with Shandong Luneng winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Shandong Luneng have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Sichuan Jiuniu — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Shandong Luneng — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sichuan Jiuniu 56% versus Shandong Luneng 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sichuan Jiuniu 66% | Shandong Luneng 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 2.19 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.082 / defence 1.175 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.051 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.797 / away 1.367. Data: 50 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 50 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 49% | Draw 21% | Shandong Luneng 30%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 2.04 | Draw 4.76 | Shandong Luneng 3.33. Sichuan Jiuniu hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.88. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.88 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.19 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sichuan Jiuniu at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shandong Luneng (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sichuan Jiuniu 80% | Shandong Luneng 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Longquanyi Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Aug 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 49% | Draw 21% | Shandong Luneng 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 73% | xG Sichuan Jiuniu 2.19 / Shandong Luneng 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.082 / def 1.175 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.051 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.797 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: Sichuan Jiuniu (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Shandong Luneng xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 16 August 2025 at Longquanyi Stadium.
What was the final score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shandong Luneng?
Sichuan Jiuniu 1 - 3 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Longquanyi Stadium.
What competition is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 49% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 30% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Sichuan Jiuniu the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Sichuan Jiuniu and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Shandong Luneng?
Record (3 meetings): Sichuan Jiuniu 0W | Draws 0 | Shandong Luneng 3W.
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Shandong Luneng in?
Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Shandong Luneng (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sichuan Jiuniu's attack rating (1.08) and Shandong Luneng's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 2.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shandong Luneng's attack (1.05x) against Sichuan Jiuniu's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sichuan Jiuniu Win
49%
2.03
21%
4.71
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.6%
Draw
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Total xG
3.88
1.69
Shandong Luneng xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.71
21%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.68
Clean Sheet
18%
5.41
11%
8.97
Win to Nil
9%
11.01
3%
30.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 7.6 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are Sichuan Jiuniu and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Sichuan Jiuniu and 1.69 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 3.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sichuan Jiuniu come into this having played 50 games, going 12W 10D 28L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Sichuan Jiuniu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shandong Luneng sit at 1.58 PPG from 50 outings (22W 13D 15L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Shandong Luneng is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shandong Luneng carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Sichuan Jiuniu — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sichuan Jiuniu's home form reads 8W 5D 12L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.16 PPG return.
Away from home, Shandong Luneng have taken 1.24 points per game from 25 outings (8W 7D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sichuan Jiuniu are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 2.02 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 1.76 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sichuan Jiuniu
Blended
Shandong Luneng
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 12W 10D 28L in their last 50 games (0.92 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 22W 13D 15L in their last 50 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sichuan Jiuniu at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Shandong Luneng's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sichuan Jiuniu at home: 1.16 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shandong Luneng won 4-0 on 11 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Shandong Luneng — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Sichuan Jiuniu
1
Draws
5
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Shandong Luneng?
From 6 meetings on record, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 0, Shandong Luneng have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sichuan Jiuniu and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Shandong Luneng 1-1 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Who has won more matches between Sichuan Jiuniu and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sichuan Jiuniu 64%, Shandong Luneng 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Sichuan Jiuniu and 56% for Shandong Luneng. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sichuan Jiuniu home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sichuan Jiuniu play Shandong Luneng?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Sichuan Jiuniu's games and 60% of Shandong Luneng's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Shandong Luneng usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Sichuan Jiuniu's matches and 56% of Shandong Luneng's.
Do Sichuan Jiuniu and Shandong Luneng tend to score early?
Sichuan Jiuniu have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Shandong Luneng in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shandong Luneng cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sichuan Jiuniu.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Sichuan Jiuniu 1-3 at Longquanyi Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 2.19 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.69 xG, a combined 3.88. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sichuan Jiuniu fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Shandong Luneng outscored their 1.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 1.08 / defence 1.18 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.05 / defence 1.13, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 49% | Draw 21% | Shandong Luneng 30%, with Sichuan Jiuniu to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Shandong Luneng win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sichuan Jiuniu 66%, Shandong Luneng 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.92. That form edge translated into the three points. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.